Re-Drafting the 2012 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics

5 Risers

These players, conversely, were significantly underrated and ended up going much later than they deserved.

While Beal and his 16.0 points per game career scoring average were a solid pick for the Washington Wizards at third overall, Green would represent a significant upgrade for Washington in our draft do-ver. When we look at Green's career, entirely erase the first two seasons where he was misused by coach Mark Jackson and unable to develop his game. Ever since Steve Kerr came to town and Green has been a regular in the starting lineup, his averages have skyrocketed.

Over the past two seasons, he has not only become the vocal leader of the winningest team of all-time, but he achieved All-Star status in 2015-16. He has been the runner-up to Defensive Player of the Year winner Kawhi Leonard two years in a row. The advanced analytics love him too. Last season, he finished in the top 10 in win shares, box plus/minus, and VORP. Green also racked up 13 triple-doubles as he did the rarely-seen feat of a top-eight finish in both total rebounds and assists.

While there have been other notable second-round picks who have achieved greatness (Marc Gasol, Isaiah Thomas, Gilbert Arenas to name a few), you can guarantee every team in the league that passed on him is kicking themselves for overlooking Green. But then again, maybe being the 35th overall choice gave Dray the fire to play as he does.

While Lillard's move up of five spots is not as dramatic as Green's, it is just as, if not more, significant. Lillard would give point guard needy New Orleans legitimate second thoughts on if Davis was the right selection. Lillard leads the 2012 draft class with career averages of 21.4 points and 6.3 assists per game. He has also played nearly 2,700 more minutes than second-place Drummond. A two-time All-Star and the unanimous 2012-13 Rookie of the Year, Lillard has been in the top 10 of offensive win shares the past two seasons.

After the mass exodus of fellow starters LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, and Wesley Matthews from Portland in the summer of 2015, Lillard led the Blazers back to the playoffs and a first-round upset over the Los Angeles Clippers. If anyone is worthy of the top choice in the 2012 draft besides Davis, it is the remarkably durable Lillard.

After floundering away in Dallas the first two-plus seasons of his career, Crowder has found Brad Stevens' system in Boston to be the perfect fit for his all-around game. 2015-16 was a breakout season as he posted career high numbers of 14.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Had he went fifth overall to Sacramento instead of Robinson, Crowder would have had the chance to team up with not only DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans but also future Celtics teammate Isaiah Thomas. That quartet would be a solid core and could have changed the fortunes of the still struggling franchise.

When comparing Middleton to who the Warriors actually took at seven, Barnes, you see a ton of similarities. Both are 6'8" wing players with average defensive abilities who excel at long-range shots. However, if you look at their numbers, particularly his true shooting percentage of 56.0%, Middleton would have been a more dynamic scoring threat for Golden State. While he may not have had the opportunity to average 18.1 points per game like he did last season in Milwaukee, the small forward and his career three-point accuracy of 40% would have fit well into the Warriors' Death Lineup.

The Portland Trail Blazers would never have taken Sullinger with the sixth pick when they had then franchise cornerstone Aldridge at power forward. It doesn't mean that the Ohio State product didn't deserve to be taken in the top 10. Since finding his way into the Celtics' starting lineup his sophomore season, Sullinger has averaged 12.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. One of the best rebounders in the 2012 class, Sullinger has a career average of 7.7 rebounds that ranks third behind only Davis and Drummond.