Re-Drafting the 2013 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
Risers
These players, conversely, were underdrafted and have so far outperformed their draft position.
| Player | Actual Pick | Re-Draft Pick | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 27 | 1 | +26 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 21 | 2 | +19 |
| Mason Plumlee | 22 | 3 | +19 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 15 | 4 | +11 |
| Steven Adams | 12 | 6 | +6 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 13 | 7 | +6 |
We've covered Gobert and Antetokounmpo already, so we don't need to re-hash that here.
Gorgui Dieng -- our second overall re-draft selection -- has been a solid player for the promising young Timberwolves through three seasons. Last year, in particular, he averaged 10.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 27.1 minutes per game playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. He also shot an ultra-efficient 53.2% from the field and 82.7% from the free throw line for an excellent true shooting percentage of 60.1%. The big man from Senegal is often overlooked in discussions of the best players from the 2013 draft, and may never be an All-Star-caliber player, but he is already a solid big man at age 26 and an interesting complement to Towns.
Mason Plumlee only has a few tools in his tool shed, but he can do those things well. He's a career 57.0% shooter from the field (with 70.4% of his shots coming from within two feet of the hoop), rebounds the ball at a rate of 10.8 boards per 36 minutes, and came second in the league in personal fouls last season with 253. His efficiency, passable defense, and rebounding prowess grade him well in most advanced analytics, including VORP, nERD, and win shares.
Steven Adams and Kelly Olynyk may not have outperformed their draft slot to the extent of Gobert, Dieng, Plumlee, and Antetokounmpo, but they are both lottery picks who perhaps deserved to be taken a little higher in hindsight. Adams is on the verge of breaking out in Oklahoma City and that's part of the reason why the Thunder were comfortable with trading Serge Ibaka this summer. In the 2016 NBA Playoffs, Adams averaged 10.1 points and 9.5 rebounds in 30.7 minutes per game, while shooting a blistering 61.3% from the field. With Ibaka and Durant out of town, some extra responsibility could be headed Adams' way and he could continue to raise his re-draft stock.
Olynyk's biggest claim to fame through three seasons is separating Kevin Love's shoulder in the 2015 postseason, but he's also having a subtly serviceable career so far as a backup big in Boston. The lanky Canadian scored 10.0 points in only 20.2 minutes per contest in 2015-16 (17.7 points per 36), while shooting 40.5% from long range and adding 4.1 rebounds (7.3 per 36). Olynyk's career has been relatively quiet to date, but his future is plenty bright with every team in today's NBA clamoring for stretch bigs.
