Which 2018 NBA Rising Stars Challenge Participants Profile as Future Superstars?
Really Good Roles
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
| Comparable Seasons | Match % |
|---|---|
| Shane Battier, 2007-08 | 90.86% |
| Tayshaun Prince, 2003-04 | 90.80% |
| Brian Grant, 2000-01 | 90.48% |
| Derrick Coleman, 2001-02 | 90.04% |
| Brandon Bass, 2010-11 | 89.91% |
Tatum is one of the NBA's youngest players. His 3.7 nERD is not only great for a 19-year-old, but it's third on the Celtics' roster to this point in the season. He's helped them to the second-best record in the East. By these comparables, he might be benefiting in a big way from the system and playing alongside a star like Kyrie Irving.
Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince and Derrick Coleman weren't the biggest of stars, but they did manage to attain achievements, most notably Battier and Prince combining for three championships and six All-Defensive teams. Tatum's skills and defensive efficiency -- 103 defensive rating and 3.1 defensive win shares -- are right there with those two elite wing defenders.
Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers
| Comparable Seasons | Match % |
|---|---|
| Donatas Motiejunas, 2014-15 | 89.66% |
| Marc Jackson, 2004-05 | 89.48% |
| David Lee, 2012-13 | 87.87% |
| Brandon Bass, 2014-15 | 87.56% |
| David Lee, 2013-14 | 87.51% |
Saric draws comparisons to good passing bigs like Donatas Motiejunas and David Lee. D-Mo is out of the league now, but in his brief NBA success he was a slick interior passer with 12 points and 1.8 assists per game over the 2014-15 season. Lee was more proven player in his 12-year career. In back-to-back seasons (the first an All-Star appearance), he averaged at 3.5 and 2.1 assists while also contributing 18.5 and 18.2 points per game, respectively.
The biggest difference between Saric and Lee's seasons are the three-point shot. In today's NBA, Saric has shown the ability to fit in with a pair of threes per game on 38.7% from deep. That's played a big part in his 14.7 points a game for Philadelphia. So long as he remains there, he should fit in nicely with options A and B, in Embiid and Simmons.
Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers
| Comparable Seasons | Match % |
|---|---|
| Lamar Odom, 2004-05 | 91.01% |
| Vitaly Potapenko, 1999-00 | 90.76% |
| Roy Hibbert, 2011-12 | 88.81% |
| Chris Kaman, 2004-05 | 87.96% |
| Al Horford, 2007-08 | 87.75% |
After a wasted season in Oklahoma City, Sabonis has been given the opportunity to show his stuff this year. With the Pacers dealing with injuries, he's been pushed into 19 starts, averaging 25.3 minutes across 56 total games. He's managed to turn his new role into 12.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. That's amounted to a 1.6 nERD, which ranks fourth on the team.
In a wide range of comparisons, Lamar Odom's first year with the Los Angeles Lakers most closely mirrors the chameleon-like play of Sabonis. In more minutes, Odom averaged 3.7 assists, which supplemented his 15.2 points and 10.2 boards per game. Given Sabonis' role as the third big in Indy, he's shown that he can bring big value to a team.
