NBA Playoffs: First-Round Matchup Projections

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Indiana Pacers

The Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) are trying to make it four straight years of representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. To get there, they'll have to surpass a formidable roadblock right off the bat: the Indiana Pacers (48-34).

The Pacers actually have a better nERD (54.2, 11th) than the Cavaliers (51.8, 14th), but our algorithms still skew heavily in favor of Cleveland when it comes to this series. It's not often that our projections like a lower-ranked team this much in a playoff matchup, but homecourt advantage goes a long way, and having a transcendent player like LeBron James can sometimes break math.