NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 12/27/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls
Under 227.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5
The Chicago Bulls lost to the Indiana Pacers by 19 last night, their 10th loss in a row to Indiana. If it wasn't for a 35-point outburst in the fourth quarter, the loss would have looked even worse. They'll be on no rest when they look to bounce back and get their first win of the season when they host the Golden State Warriors at the United Center tonight.
The Bulls' output 105.0 points per game thus far amazingly looks downright incendiary compared to the Warriors, who have put up just 99 in each of their first two games, where they've lost by 26 and 39, respectively. Through two games, the Warriors and Bulls have the worst and third-worst offensive ratings in the league. While neither defense has been as atrocious as their offense, both squads rank in the bottom eight in defensive rating, which is one reason why tonight's total sits at 227.5.
The over hit in the Bulls' loss last night, thanks to them and the Pacers combining for 61 in the meaningless final quarter. Over the past couple of seasons, the under is 7-4 when the Bulls are on no rest coming off a game in which the over hit. The under went 25-12-1 last year when the Warriors were coming off of consecutive losses.
Our model doesn't see these offenses doing enough tonight to overcome their defensive limitations. We have the teams combining for just 212.2 points, 15.3 below the current total. We give the under a 77.7% chance of hitting. With an expected return of $148.30 on a $100 bet, we mark the under as a five-star play.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers -11.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Lakers Moneyline (-700): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Minnesota Timberwolves walked out of Salt Lake City last night with a surprising 116-111 win over a Utah Jazz, who had just thrashed the Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points. We don't see them being as lucky tonight when they travel southwest to take on the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center.
Away underdogs of more than 10 points were just 2-21 straight up (SU) and 8-15 against the spread (ATS) last year when coming off an away game on no rest. The Wolves were just 3-8 SU and ATS last season in away games coming off games in which they were away underdogs.
The Lakers were 21-1 SU and 12-10 ATS last season when favored by more than 10 points. At home, the numbers were 17-1 and 11-7, respectively. LA was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS when playing a team on no rest last year. Their only loss came to the Memphis Grizzlies in an away game.
Collectively, NBA teams were 30-5 SU and 22-13 ATS last season as more than 10-point home favorites against teams playing on no rest. Our model sees the Lakers adding tallies to those win columns.
We give the Lakers a 91.3% chance of walking away with a win and a 62.5% chance of covering the 11.5-point spread. We mark the bets as four- and three-star plays, respectively.
