FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 1/27/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's loaded 12-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Core Plays: With Devin Booker out on Saturday, Chris Paul ($7,400) exploded for a season-high 55.3 FanDuel points. Well, Booker is out again tonight, which means CP3 is a core play. On the season, Paul is averaging an additional 0.13 FanDuel points per minute with Booker off the court, according to RotoGrinders. The New Orleans Pelicans' game was postponed on Monday, but should they play tonight, our model projects Lonzo Ball ($5,600) to be the best value at the position. Lonzo's seen his minutes tick up in each of his three games since returning from injury, and he topped out with a 34.3 FanDuel-point performance on Saturday. Our algorithm projects Ball to post 32.9 tonight against a Washington Wizards team that's allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, according to numberFire's DvP matchup tool.

Key Studs: Before getting to the extremely high-salaried point guards, let's touch on De'Aaron Fox ($7,900). Fox gets a pristine matchup against an Orlando Magic team that's ceding the seventh-most fantasy point to point guards this season. The 23-year-old has eclipsed 40 FanDuel points with ease nine times this season, and he only needs 39.5 to return a value figure of 5.0 at his salary. At the top, we have Luka Doncic ($11,500) and Trae Young ($10,600). In theory, Doncic has a tough matchup against a Utah Jazz team that ranks fifth against the position. However, this is Luka Doncic we're talking about -- you know, the guy that's posted more than 60 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 11 games. The usually-explosive Dallas Mavericks are just middle-of-the-pack with their implied total, so it's possible that Luka underwhelms tonight. Still, he's worth some exposure due to his upside. I'd be much less inclined to roster Young. The 22-year-old would need 53 FanDuel points just to return a value figure of 5.0, and he's reached 53 just once all season.

Value Options: The Wizards still have plenty of players out due to COVID protocols, and it's pretty clear that Russell Westbrook is not entirely healthy. Those facts could lead to Jerome Robinson ($3,600) being an excellent salary-saver. Robinson's played 35.3 and 29.8 minutes in his last two games, and at his salary, he would only need 18 FanDuel points to accrue our baseline value figure -- he's topped 21 in three of the last six games in which he's been active. Our model projects Patty Mills ($4,000) to return the fourth-best value at the position. Mills has eclipsed 20 FanDuel points (what he needs for 5.0) in 8 of his last 11 efforts.

Shooting Guard

Key Studs: In his three games this season with Pascal Siakam off the court, Fred VanVleet ($7,900) has posted 46.5, 42.0, and 47.8 FanDuel points. Pascal is joined by OG Anunoby on the questionable list tonight. FVV is worth considering even if it's just Siakam that can't suit up, but if both players can't go, he's a core play. Bradley Beal ($10,300) is the highest-salaried player at the position, but that doesn't mean he should be faded. Beal's playing in a game that has the third-highest projected total on this slate, and he has also topped 53 FanDuel points in three of his last six. If Westbrook sits out for the back-end of a back-to-back tonight, Beal would be one of the top studs on the slate. It also doesn't hurt that the New Orleans Pelicans are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

Core Plays and Value Options: With Donovan Mitchell entering the concussion protocol and missing tonight's game, Jordan Clarkson ($5,300) is now very much in play. Clarkson sees minor bumps in both usage and fantasy output with Mitchell off the court this season, but we're talking about a guy who had already posted more than 29 fantasy points in 8 of his last 12 games -- and those came with Mitchell in the lineup. Devin Vassell ($3,900) comes in under $4,000 and has been fairly productive of late. The rookie has exceeded 23 FanDuel points in five of his last six outings, and he would only need 19.5 tonight to reach 5X. Jeremy Lamb ($5,200) started the second half on Monday when Domantas Sabonis went down with an injury -- he ended up totaling 34.4 FanDuel points in 33 minutes of action. Lamb would benefit from the additional available usage if Sabonis were to miss tonight's contest. Josh Richardson ($4,100) is expected to make his return tonight for the Dallas Mavericks, and our model projects him to be the top value at shooting guard.

Other option: Andre Iguodala ($3,700) has managed to exceed 25 fantasy points in three of his last four, and tonight he'll be facing a Denver Nuggets team allowing the fourth-most fantasy point to shooting guards.

Small Forward

Studs to Consider: LeBron James ($10,400) has recorded season-highs in fantasy points in two of his last three games, and tonight he'll square off with a Philadelphia 76ers team that's sixth-worst against small forwards and eighth-worst against point guards, when adjusted for competition. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant ($10,700) is averaging 55.1 FanDuel points over his last eight outings, and he'll take on an Atlanta Hawks team that's allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. The Brooklyn Nets have an implied total that's 3.5 points higher than any team on tonight's huge slate, so you'll definitely want a part of that offense.

Core Plays and Value Options: With Booker sitting out on Saturday, Cam Johnson ($4,600) recorded 27.6 FanDuel points while playing a season-high 34.9 minutes. Tonight, Johnson will face an Oklahoma City Thunder squad that's ceded the most fantasy points to small forwards in 2020-21. Johnson is our model's second-best projected value at the position. For the same reasons, Mikal Bridges ($5,400) is also worthy of consideration. When adjusted for competition, the Charlotte Hornets rank second-worst against both forward positions, per Gdula -- enter Justin Holiday ($4,100). Holiday is our model's top projected value in this tasty matchup.

Other options: While they won't save quite as much salary, our models have lofty expectations for Brandon Ingram ($7,500) and Kelly Oubre ($5,800), projecting them to return value figures of 5.47 and 5.23, respectively.

Power Forward

Studs to Consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) has looked off more often than not this season, and yet his fantasy production hasn't taken too much of a hit because of it. The two-time MVP has recorded more than 50 FanDuel points in 9 of his 15 games this season, and he's managed at least 59 in 5 of his last 11 outings. In two matchups against the Toronto Raptors last season, Giannis posted 58.8 and 78.0 fantasy points. That'll play. The Greek Freak is numberFire's top-projected scorer on the slate. Meanwhile, Anthony Davis ($10,100) has garnered at least 49 fantasy points eight times this season, including in five of his last seven games. Both of these studs are worth some exposure.

Core Plays and Value Options: Aaron Gordon ($6,800) is averaging 44.1 FanDuel points over his last four games, and tonight, he'll look to go off against a Sacramento Kings defense that's sixth-worst against power forwards this campaign. numberFire's algorithm projects Gordon to be the fourth-best value at the position. Our model is also high on Jae Crowder ($4,800), who totaled season-highs in minutes (44.7) and FanDuel points (34.9) in Booker's absence on Saturday. However, our model's top-projected value at the position is Chris Boucher ($6,500). Though he has underwhelmed in his last four, Boucher has showcased his upside on numerous occasions this season -- that includes eight outings with more than 38 FanDuel points. numberFire's algorithm has Boucher projected for 36.8 tonight.

Other options: Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,400) has amassed more than 29 fantasy points in six of his last eight games without Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup. John Collins ($7,400) has surpassed 41 FanDuel points in three of his last four and faces a Nets team with no interior defense.

Center

Value Play: Our model's top-projected value on the entire slate is Mason Plumlee ($4,400). Blake Griffin is out tonight, and in the four games he's missed this season, Plumlee has averaged 29.2 FanDuel points. numberFire's projections have him racking up 28.7 tonight.

Other options: Steven Adams ($5,000) and Naz Reid ($5,000) are our model's second and third-best projected values at the position, respectively.

Studs to Consider: Both Nikola Jokic ($11,200) and Joel Embiid ($9,800) are taking on teams that are among the eight-stingiest against centers this season. That said, given their upside, having no exposure to either of them can be risky. Clint Capela ($10,500) has a salary that's sliced right in between those two, though his recent play makes him an intriguing option. Capela is averaging 60.8 FanDuel points over his last five games, and he'll go up against a Nets defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers since they traded Jarrett Allen.