3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 2/19/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Terrence Ross Under 17.5 Points (-110)

Terrence Ross is scoring the ball well of late, and the Orlando Magic get a pace-up date with the Golden State Warriors. Despite those things, the under on Ross' points prop looks like the way to go.

Ross is hot from deep over his last five, nailing 16 triples in that span, including a 5-for-6 three-point performance last time out. But the Warriors have been tough on shooting guards, particularly when it comes to the three ball. The Dubs are giving up the seventh-fewest three-point tries per game to two-guards (8.6), and they are allowing a mere 21.7 points per game to the position, the fifth-fewest in the league.

Prior to his last five games, Ross had gone for 18-plus points only once across his past 10. Our algorithm projects Ross for 15.9 points tonight.

Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (-154)

The New Orleans Pelicans are giving up a crap ton of three-point attempts each game, and that's something we can take advantage of with this prop. Teams facing New Orleans are taking an eye-popping 46.9% of their shots from beyond the arc. That's the highest rate in the league. They're hitting a bunch, too, making 39.7% of those three-point attempts, the third-highest rate.

The Pels have conceded 8.9 three-point tries per game to small forwards, the third-most. Bridges should get a few more looks than usual from deep today, and he's a good enough shooter to hit two of them as he has made multiple triples in three of his past four outings.

Our model has Bridges pegged for 2.0 made threes tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 7.5 Assists (-120)

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dishing out assists at an abnormally high clip over his past three games, averaging 8.7 dimes per night in that span. But for the year, he's recorded just 5.9 assists per night, and prior to the past three, he had produced seven or fewer assists in seven of nine games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have permitted only 3.6 assists per game to power forwards, though Giannis isn't a run-of-the-mill power forward. Across their past 10 games, OKC has tightened up defensively, surrendering 112.3 points per game, the 11th-fewest.

Another factor working against Antetokounmpo today is that the Milwaukee Bucks are 11.0-point favorites, which could lead to reduced minutes for Giannis if things get out of hand.

We project Antetokounmpo for just 6.0 assists tonight, so we see good value on the under.