NBA Odds Update: Are We Sleeping on the 76ers?
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most over the last two weeks. You can read our last update here.
Teams that had strong stretches and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at the three teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last couple of weeks.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 9.4%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 5.4%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1200
We haven't covered the Philadelphia 76ers in this column in more than two months, but the fact is that our model sees them as one of the best value bets on the board.
At 24-21, the Sixers currently sit atop the Eastern Conference. In their outing before the All-Star break, Philly came back from down nine at halftime to hand the Utah Jazz just their ninth loss of the season. It was the kind of victory that helped contribute to a 70.1% increase in their title probability, from 5.4% to 9.4%, per numberFire's algorithm.
The 76ers reside in an Eastern Conference that, in theory, should provide an easier path to a championship. According to NBA.com, five of the top six teams in the league in net rating find themselves in the West.
Over at NBA Finals odds, a title bet on Philadelphia is currently priced at 12/1 -- that carries implied odds of 7.7%. Our model has the likelihood of the Sixers winning it all at 9.4%.
Phoenix Suns
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 5.9%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 4.0%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +3200
Did you get in on the Phoenix Suns when we touted them here last week? Well, I sure hope so, because their odds shrunk from 42/1 to 32/1 during that span.
By all accounts, the Suns are one of the elite teams in the league. They're second in the league in win percentage, third in net rating and defensive efficiency, and eighth in offensive efficiency. So far this season, Phoenix has defeated five of the other seven teams that have a net rating better than 3.0.
Despite their odds shrinking, numberFire's models still see value in a Suns title bet. While our algorithm has their probability at 5.9%, the implied odds of their current price (32/1) is just 3.0%.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 11.9%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 20.1%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +280
There's no doubt that the Los Angeles Lakers are a team that's well equipped to defend their title -- that doesn't mean that there's value in betting on them to do so.
The reigning champs have seen their numberFire probability shrink to 11.9%, the lowest I've seen this season -- but they were even a questionable bet at their previous odds (20.1%).
The Lakers' current price of +280 carries 26.3% implied odds. That's quite a price to pay when there are several legitimate championship contenders in the Western Conference alone.
At FanDuel, two other teams in the West -- the Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers -- have odds that are fewer than four-digits. That doesn't even include the Suns and Denver Nuggets, who currently rank third and fourth in the league in net rating, respectively. This is just a tough price to get to.
