NBA Betting Guide for Monday 4/26/21: 3 Totals Our Algorithm and Public Are Backing

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers

When we see a significantly higher portion of money on a particular bet compared to the portion of tickets on it, we can assume that sharper (or at least heavier -- if not sharper) bettors are targeting something with interest.

That's what we see on the over (219.5) in this game. There is already a majority of betting tickets on the over (58%), which is a welcomed sight. But there is a 10-point gap between the tickets (58%) and money (68%) on the over.

The median point projection from our model is 224.7, which gives some wiggle room on the over. numberFire is rating the over as 60.6% likely to occur in this game. That leads to an expected return of 15.6% on bets.

The heavy spread (Philadelphia 76ers by 13.0) might make it seem like a blowout is imminent and that points won't flow. However, games with a double-digit spread this year have hit the over 57.0% of the time.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Another double-digit spread (Toronto Raptors by 11.0) and another over (214.0)? That's where things are lining up tonight.

oddsFire is showing 71% of the tickets and 76% of the money on the over in this game, so we know where the public is leaning.

Our algorithm is lightly on the over, rating it as a one-star recommendation and seeing it as 56.9% likely to occur. That's tied to an expected return of 8.6%.

These two teams have been pretty different on the over/under trends: Toronto has finished over the posted total in 55.0% of their games, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers, it's 43.3%.

Using data from the past 15 games, however, my model projected an over/under of 218.5 for this game and sees the over as 64.1% likely to occur.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Another over? Sure thing. This one is a little more nuanced, but the over still sticks out.

This game has 84% of the tickets and 80% of the money on the over (206.5), so there is heavy interest on the over by the betting public.

Our model is rating the over as a four-star recommendation and sees it as 69.4% likely to occur. That equates to an expected return of 32.5%.

Each of these two teams is top-18 (read: not terrible) in offensive rating over the past 15 games. The Miami Heat are 9th in defensive rating (109.6), and the Chicago Bulls are 22nd (113.1). Using those inputs, my model expected the over/under to be 218.5, which isn't even close to what this mark is.

It drops to 217.2 when using the Bulls' data when Zach LaVine is off the floor (he's out) and when Nikola Vucevic is playing. That's still well above the 206.5 over/under.

I probably buried the lede here, as these two teams played on Saturday, netting a combined 207 points. The Bulls had a wild 16.7% turnover rate, so with some extra offensive opportunities, the over seems like the right play. The main path to the under is simply the slow pace at which these teams play.