NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 12/9/21: It Looks Like Underdog Night
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers
The model at numberFire generally loves the Utah Jazz, but in this game, it's siding with the underdog Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers are considered 52.1% likely to pick up the win despite their status as 2.5-point underdogs against a 17-7 Jazz squad.
Over their past 10 games, the Jazz have a blistering 62.1% effective field goal percentage despite a below-average shot quality of 51.0%.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this matchup in numberFire's database, teams representing the 76ers have won 52.0% of them and covered in 60.0%.
That puts their spread (+2.5) and their moneyline (+126) as two-star suggestions, per our algorithm. The expected returns there are 14.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
This game has the best betting value of the night, according to numberFire's model. The Memphis Grizzlies' spread (+4.0) and moneyline (+144) are both three-star recommendations.
The Los Angeles Lakers list LeBron James and Anthony Davis as probable. In games with both of them active, they are 7-5, and in those games in non-garbage situations, their net rating is a tepid +1.3.
What about the Grizzlies without Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Kyle Anderson? They're 2-1 with a non-garbage net rating of +4.4.
My model views Memphis' win odds as 59.7%. numberFire's has the Grizzlies' odds at 54.8%. Either way, taking the points with the underdogs in this one is the best value spot of the night.
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
The model here is a little light on betting value recommendations within this nightcap.
It does show a lean on the Denver Nuggets' spread (+1.5) and moneyline (+102), both of which are one-star suggestions. The expected returns are just 5.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
The 8-15 San Antonio Spurs are actually higher in numberFire's power rankings (17th) than the 12-12 Nuggets are (22nd). The Spurs' spread-adjusted point differential is +2.4 while the Nuggets' mark is -0.2.
However, the Spurs, in medium-to-very-high-leverage situations, have a net rating of -9.4 without Keldon Johnson, who is doubtful.
Over the past five games with Nikola Jokic back, the Nuggets have a 3-2 record with a spread-adjusted point differential of +1.9.
