FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 12/30/21
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
| Away | Home | Game Total |
Away Implied Total |
Home Implied Total |
Away Pace |
Home Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | Washington | 210.5 | 103.5 | 107 | 19 | 26 |
| Milwaukee | Orlando | 217 | 115 | 102 | 10 | 16 |
| Philadelphia | Brooklyn | 219.5 | 107.75 | 111.75 | 29 | 6 |
| Golden State | Denver | 212.5 | 109 | 103.5 | 15 | 24 |
COVID-19 Protocol Update
Due to the advanced number of players in COVID-19 protocols, I want to provide just a manual list of those players moving forward and then discuss the other injury news separately. Only players that significantly impact the slate are listed:
| Player | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley Beal | Washington | Questionable |
| Draymond Green | Golden State | Out |
| Darius Garland | Cleveland | Out |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland | Questionable |
| Mo Bamba | Orlando | Questionable |
| Chuma Okeke | Orlando | Out |
| David Duke | Brooklyn | Out |
| Terrence Ross | Orlando | Questionable |
| Andre Drummond | Philadelphia | Questionable |
| Cedi Osman | Cleveland | Questionable |
| Montrezl Harrell | Washington | Out |
| Rui Hachimura | Washington | Out |
| Kessler Edwards | Brooklyn | Out |
| Danny Green | Philadelphia | Questionable |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Washington | Questionable |
| Hassani Gravett | Orlando | Out |
| Shake Milton | Philadelphia | Questionable |
| Raul Neto | Philadelphia | Out |
| Damion Lee | Golden State | Out |
| Aaron Holiday | Washington | Out |
The headline of this four-game slate is indeed the number of players potentially clearing COVID-19 protocols at last, but real injuries are still present, too.
Most notably, the Cavaliers are down their entire opening day backcourt rotation. Ricky Rubio, unfortunately, tore his ACL on Tuesday, and he is done for the season.
In addition to the half-dozen or so teammates in COVID-19 protocols, the Magic will be without Cole Anthony (ankle) once more.
The most impactful news, though, lies with the Nuggets. Their rotation could be open for playing time once more if Monte Morris (knee) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) are unable to face Golden State as they were on Tuesday.
Guards
Stephen Curry ($10,400): It doesn't take much to see this -- the cash line will be way lower on Thursday's four-game slate than any of the past week or so. Many players are over-salaried for increased roles that they're now losing as teammates return. Curry fits that description, but with Jordan Poole in the lineup, Curry has broken 50 FanDuel points on nine separate occasions since the start of November. He's still got the upside to pay off this salary despite a shaky floor, and the Warriors are still without Draymond Green, who is in COVID-19 protocols.
R.J. Hampton ($5,300): The world's chalkiest ninth man should be so again on Thursday. The Magic obviously like Hampton's talent and give him extended court time, so it will be interesting to see if he finally starts with Hassani Gravett now in COVID-19 protocols. If he does, Hampton is among a few can't-miss plays on the slate, but if Tim Frazier starts instead, then both should be viable but not stellar. Hampton is averaging 0.81 FanDuel points per minute this season and should push for a role of 30-plus minutes.
Others to Consider:
James Harden ($11,100): You could roster him and hope for a pinnacle outcome with Kevin Durant in the lineup. I probably won't.
Kevin Pangos ($3,900): Should see plenty of court time with Rubio out and might start.
Tim Frazier ($3,700): Played the sixth-most minutes for Orlando on Tuesday. Could start and see 30-plus minutes or a heavy-usage role off the bench. Either is good for the salary.
Wings
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200): I'm okay with the blowout risk on Thursday's messy slate. The Bucks are 13.0-point favorites and have bludgeoned Orlando in their last two meetings, but there's frankly a lack of places to put salary accompanied by great per-dollar value. Giannis' three-quarters floor is tremendous with his Milwaukee-best marks in usage rate (34.6%) and FanDuel points per minute (1.67). Orlando owns a porous 112.5 defensive rating and has been fortunate to not see a red-hot Giannis in either of their past two meetings.
Isaac Okoro ($4,600): The Cavs' new offensive hierarchy will be interesting. Darius Garland will return from COVID-19 protocols eventually, but as of now, no Cleveland player has eclipsed 70 minutes of court time without all three of him, Rubio, and Collin Sexton off the floor this season -- and most of those minutes were in blowouts. Okoro's 18.8% usage rate isn't bad in that limited sample, and he could be the listed point guard in tonight's starting lineup. At this salary, that role could be a must on this slate.
Others to Consider:
Franz Wagner ($7,100): The Payton Pritchard Effect. His 27.8% usage rate is awesome for this salary. Does he have the skill to keep the production long-term as defenses adjust?
Will Barton ($5,500): Whether or not Morris and Gordon play, he's just currently under-salaried. One of few who fit that description Thursday.
Matisse Thybulle ($4,100): Has seen starter minutes in four straight. Dangerous with blocks and steals if he gets that kind of workload.
Bigs
Nikola Jokic ($11,700): The breakdown of Jokic versus Joel Embiid depends on where the salary is spent at guard. I strongly prefer Curry over Harden, so Jokic likely is the answer more often than JoJo. With plenty of value, tight spreads in both games, a wide spread for Giannis, and both centers averaging at least 1.58 FanDuel points per minute in December, it's hard to justify not using the pivot spot on Jokic or Embiid and working from there -- even in tournaments. Jokic is just a 5.5-point underdog in a pace-up spot.
Evan Mobley ($7,300): As mentioned, there isn't much of a sample with all three of Cleveland's defacto point guards out of the lineup, but the notable standout in that sample is Mobley. He leads all starters in usage (32.7%) and FanDuel points per minute (1.09) in that split. Including Lauri Markkanen, more of the offense should flow through the Cleveland frontcourt tonight -- a trend that should offset the potential return of Jarrett Allen from COVID-19 protocols.
Others to Consider:
Joel Embiid ($10,800): One other note on Jokic vs. Embiid -- Embiid will likely be more popular with similar production at a lower salary. Still a high-floor option.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,100): Not only is his playing time safe for as long as Mohamed Bamba is sidelined, but he took 14 shots last game. The offensive role is expanding.
Lauri Markkanen ($5,500): Should see his most involved offensive game of the season. Has a ceiling of 30 real-life points that's not to be ignored in tournaments.
