FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 1/3/22

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate

Guards

There are a lot of double-digit spreads on this 10-game slate, so we can put a premium on tighter spreads in hopes of close games and more minutes for starters.

We have that with James Harden ($11,400), who stands out among all guard plays even on a top-heavy slate. My slate simulations view Harden as 23.8% likely to have the most FanDuel points among guard plays, and he's 65.0% likely to finish top five at the position.

The sims actually like Bradley Beal ($9,100), Trae Young ($9,800), and LaMelo Ball ($9,400) as better median-level plays at their given salaries. They all play in games with tight spreads, as well. In total, my model rates the three best stud guards as Beal, Young, and then Harden after accounting for salary.

There's plenty of value to go around, too, of course.

We've got Dennis Smith ($4,000) and Anfernee Simons ($3,700) for the Portland Trail Blazers while Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are out. Without those two on the court this season (and without Jusuf Nurkic), Smith has a 23.5% usage rate and averages 1.01 FanDuel points per minute, via RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool, across 148.9 minutes. Simons' marks are 34.8% and 0.69, respectively, over 85.0 minutes.

They rank as 29.6% and 22.2%, respectively, to finish with the top value (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) among guards. Those are -- by far -- the top two odds among the position.

Other standout value plays include Tyus Jones ($4,100; 10.0% to have the top guard value) and Tim Frazier ($3,900; 8.2%).

Forwards

There are three star options at forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600), Kevin Durant ($11,200), and Jimmy Butler ($9,800).

Antetokounmpo and Butler are in games with double-digit spreads, however, and while Durant's Brooklyn Nets are 6.0-point favorites, none of the three rate as elite plays at their particular salaries.

That said, Giannis (65.4), Durant (63.5), and Butler (56.1) have ceiling ratings of at least 5.0 points more than anyone else at the position. Big games from them will be hard to match from any other forwards, but if we're playing the opportunity cost game, it seems greater among bigs than among forwards (more on that in a second).

Given all of that, the best plays -- accounting for salary -- among forwards are mostly in the mid-range: Norman Powell ($6,000), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,000), Hamidou Diallo ($7,300), Kyle Kuzma ($6,800), and Corey Kispert ($3,700). These rank as the top five at forward in terms of my salary-adjusted values.

Powell has a 36.0% usage rate and a per-minute average of 1.03 FanDuel points without the Blazers' key injuries.

Kuzma and Kispert are slotted for expanded roles while the Washington Wizards are without Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, and Rui Hachimura. Kuzma has a 23.3% usage rate and a 0.96-FanDuel-points-per-minute average without those three; Kispert's rates are 17.6% and 0.62, respectively.

Bigs

The top of the big pool looks more worthwhile than at forward.

That begins with Nikola Jokic ($11,500) and Joel Embiid ($10,800).

Jokic (69.0 ceiling outcome) and Embiid (65.3) are the only two PF, PF/C, or just C plays with ceilings of at least 55.0, per my simulations. Jokic gets the nod due to the tight spread (the Denver Nuggets are 3.0-point underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks, and the Philadelphia 76ers are 13.0-point favorites over the Houston Rockets). They rank 37.9% and 28.4% likely, respectively, to lead bigs in FanDuel points, leaving sub-10% odds for all others.

There's a massive opportunity cost in avoiding them and accepting value in the frontcourt tonight.

If that's still your preferred route, however, you're in luck. Naz Reid ($4,600), Serge Ibaka ($4,000), and Steven Adams ($4,900) all rate out well at sub-$5,000 salaries and provide a lot of flexibility to get back up at guard and/or forward.

Reid is projected for 32.8 FanDuel points, per numberFire, across 30.0 minutes. Ibaka is expected to get to 26.5 in his 23.5 minutes, and Adams is projected for 27.9 in 30.2 minutes. Reid (18.1%) is the most likely value leader at the position, and Ibaka (15.8%) is close behind.

Three mid-range options grade out well, of course, so you can probably get some popularity leverage by avoiding the chalky stars and the justifiable values. Daniel Gafford ($6,100), Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,100), and Omer Yurtseven ($6,400) all rank top-six in my salary-adjusted value ratings.

There are plenty of options for bigs, but just don't ignore the ceiling of Jokic and Embiid.