3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/5/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Saddiq Bey Under 20.5 Points (-108)

Former lottery pick Saddiq Bey has done an excellent job leading the Pistons' offense as multiple rotation pieces have been in COVID-19 protocols.

There's still a reason to take the under on his points prop tonight.

Bey is a low-usage wing typically. Before December 15th, Bey had just a 20.1% usage rate that was a secondary or tertiary piece in the Detroit scoring hierarchy. That's spiked to 23.8% since December 15th as the Pistons have had COVID-19 woes. However, Cade Cunningham and Saben Lee are back in the Detroit backcourt to handle the ball, and Bey's scoring binge should end soon.

He averages just 14.90 points per 36 minutes with Cunningham on the floor this season, and that number is just 18.26 points per 36 minutes when playing with Lee (and the second unit). His minutes should also drop moving forward as Detroit gets healthier; he played over 40 minutes in five straight games before dropping to 38 last time out against Milwaukee.

His field-goal percentage since December 15th (44.3%) is also way above his season-long mark (37.3%), so he's likely to regress to somewhere in the middle soon. Combining the expected drops in both volume and efficiency, this feels like a comfortable place to take the under despite a soft matchup with Charlotte.

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 Assists (+128)

Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton are both out for the 76ers tonight, and therefore, their defacto floor general might be...Tobias Harris?

Harris is second on the Sixers in terms of usage rate on the entire season (24.9%), so it's not going to be strange to see him handling the ball. Seth Curry and Furkan Korkmaz are likely to see the starting backcourt duties, but Harris may actually be the key facilitator.

When Maxey and Milton are both off the floor this season, Harris is averaging a team-best 5.85 assists per 36 minutes. That is a massive increase over his general rate of 3.92 assists per 36 minutes this season. It's a notable change when both of Philadelphia's starting point guards aren't available.

This prop is available at +128 likely because Harris averages just 3.96 assists on the season, but he's also posted at least five assists in four of his last five games as the 76ers -- like most teams -- have had some COVID-related absences.

Orlando allows the fourth-most assists per 36 minutes in the NBA (19.0), so this prop at plus money seems like a tremendous value -- in a revenge game no less.

Bobby Portis Over 9.5 Rebounds (-114)

Bobby Portis' minutes have fluctuated after a stay in COVID-19 protocols, so it was great to see him play 30 again in his last game.

Assuming he can see a full workload in a game with a six-point spread against the Toronto Raptors, his rebounding prop seems like a great target.

The Raps have the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage (69.6%) in the NBA, but they avoid the bottom-five in most counting stats because Toronto is just 23rd in the NBA in pace. The Bucks are eighth in that same category, so they should force the Raptors into more rebounding opportunities tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out tonight with an illness, and that should leave the glass wide open for Portis. Portis averages 12.86 rebounds per 36 minutes with "The Greek Freak" off the floor this season.

There will likely be all hands on deck needed with the seventh-leading rebounder in the NBA on the bench, and Portis should absolutely get the first crack at them. Portis is projected for 10.6 boards by numberFire, and that breathes plenty of life into this prop.