NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/22/22: How Do We Account for Injured Superstars?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +8.0 (-110)
The injury list is massive for the Philadelphia 76ers, and they're without Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey. That's huge.
The Brooklyn Nets' injury list is pretty clean, and they'll have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. It's a no-brainer that they'll cover at any number, right? Well, not so fast.
The Nets, with Durant and Irving active, are just 3-6 overall and have a net rating of -6.3 in that split.
The sample gets too small when we remove all three of the 76ers' top guys, but without Embiid and Harden, their net rating is a -8.4 over 337 possessions. Without Maxey, it plummets to a -14.1 -- over just 89 possessions. Even using that small sample with no regression at all, the Sixers still rate out as being able to keep it close.
This is likely a situation where the name value for the Nets is a bit too strong, especially on the road.
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
Sacramento Kings +1.0 (-114)
Over 234.0 (-110)
The home team here is also depleted. Ja Morant (questionable) and Desmond Bane (out) are huge difference-makers for the Memphis Grizzlies. Without them, their relevant net rating is an absolutely horrific -18.5 over a fairly stable 298 possessions.
With Morant but without Bane, the Grizzlies are still at a -7.4, primarily due to allowing good shot attempts on the other side.
The healthier Sacramento Kings are a +2.6 with their key assets for this game active.
So, it's hard to find the numbers here to like the Grizzlies to cover given the injury updates.
We also see really poor defensive splits from each side in their key samples, and the Kings are a top-two offense when accounting for garbage time. We can lean toward the over (234.0).
Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-108)
What's that, you say? You love games impacted by key injuries? Good news: we have another.
The Denver Nuggets are listing both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as doubtful, Aaron Gordon as questionable, and Jeff Green as out.
The Pistons are without Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and Saddiq Bey.
You know what's next: the adjusted samples. Denver's net rating without Jokic and Murray is a -13.4 over a hefty 455-possession sample. The Pistons' relevant mark is a -11.7. Each have surprisingly similar stats allowed in terms of shot quality for and against.
My model thinks the spread should be 2.5 points.
