NBA Betting Guide for Monday 12/19/22: Will the Bucks Cover as Road Favorites Against the Pelicans?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
Utah Jazz +6.5 (-114)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a phenomenal home team (14-2) with a point differential of +9.6 in the split.
The Jazz are only 6-10 in road games with a -3.2 point differential. But once you account for the spread, their mark is +1.4, and they have a 56.3% cover rate as visitors.
For this game, Utah is a bit more impacted by injuries than Cleveland is -- Collin Sexton is out of this revenge game, and Kelly Olynyk is questionable.
But once you account for all of this information, the Jazz are still a good team and project to cover the 6.5-point spread against former star Donovan Mitchell.
numberFire's model gives Utah a 60.1% chance to cover.
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 (-110)
Over 220.0 (-110)
Tyrese Maxey is still out for the Sixers, but they have played well without him (and their net rating differential with him is -0.1 compared to without him).
In games with both James Harden and Joel Embiid but without Maxey active, the 76ers are 4-1 with a +13.6 net rating.
The Toronto Raptors list OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. as questionable.
Without them and also sans Precious Achiuwa, Toronto's net rating is -3.8, thanks primarily to a horrid defensive showing (a 122.4 defensive rating).
This leads to an incredibly efficient offensive expectation for the Sixers (whose offensive rating without Maxey but in games with Harden and Embiid is an awesome 122.7 already).
The adjusted expectations here are wildly different from the line itself, and if your expectations are drastically different from the actual lines, you should take pause. Yet even if I run the data with both Anunoby and Trent Jr. active, my model thinks the 76ers cover pretty easily and that this game still goes over.
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans
Milwaukee Bucks -1.0 (-108)
Under 228.0 (-110)
Notable injuries exist for both sides of this game.
The Bucks are going to be without Khris Middleton but will have Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. In games without Middleton but with that duo active, Milwaukee has a 12-3 record and a net rating of +8.3.
It's a similar situation for the New Orleans Pelicans, who are without Brandon Ingram but will have Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum. Their relevant numbers in that split? A 12-8 record -- in spite of a -6.1 net rating.
The Pelicans have lost three straight (two to the Jazz and one to the Phoenix Suns), but all were on the road. New Orleans is 12-3 at home.
That being said, the efficiency gaps are too big here for the Pelicans to cover. My model has the Bucks favored by 6.8.
Along with that, the model anticipates just 218.3 points, so Milwaukee to cover and the under rate out really well. numberFire's model likes this under, as well. It's listed as a three-star play and as 62.6% likely.
