NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/4/23: Seeking Value on a Huge Slate

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Apr 4th, 2023

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic +5.0 (-108)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are effectively set as the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference (98.4% likely, per numberFire's simulations), and although the Magic are not yet mathematically eliminated from the 10 seed, it's do-or-die time for them.

Orlando has a respectable 10-9 post-break record with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +1.7 and a cover rate of 63.2%.

Cleveland is just 11-7 since the break, though they have a +6.4 adjusted net rating in that span. Against the spread, they're 9-9 in that split.

Accounting for health and home-court advantage, my model likes the Magic to keep this one close and cover the spread. The expected spread here is only 3.6 points, via my model.

The Magic are still scrapping, and that's giving us a value opportunity on them as underdogs.

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Over 236.5 (-110)

The Sacramento Kings are 90.1% likely to finish the regular season as the 3 seed in the Western Conference; the New Orleans Pelicans (the current 8 seed) are 52.9% likely to be in the play-in but still have a 22.3% chance to get to the 6 seed and 23.6% to finish as the 5 seed.

That being said, the best route here is the over.

My model is anticipating 241.4 points based on the current rotations for each side. In nine non-overtime road games since the break, the Kings are averaging 122.6 points per game on the back of a 120.3 adjusted offensive rating.

The Pelicans are struggling a bit offensively since the break but are set up to take advantage of a team that's allowing scoring on the other side of things.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Oklahoma City Thunder +8.0 (-110)
Under 242.0 (-110)

The Golden State Warriors are clinging to the 6 seed in the Western Conference and are up half a game on the 7 seed, but that means they're in danger of slipping into the play-in (numberFire's model thinks that's 59.2% likely to happen).

The Thunder are the 10 seed, a game up on the Dallas Mavericks, who are -- perhaps -- not fully engaged.


A win tonight will go a long way for them, but all we really need is for them to cover the 8.0-point spread.

numberFire's model likes the Thunder to cover as a three-star play.

Additionally, my model is projecting 239.6 total points.