NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 4/20/23: Can We Take the Points With All 3 Underdogs?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets +4.5 (-110)
Over 210.0 (-108)
We've got three Game 3s for Thursday night, and Game 3s, historically, have been good for home teams. Since 2018 (excluding the bubble season), home teams have a 60.0% win rate and a 56.7% cover rate.
In this particular matchup, it's telling that the Brooklyn Nets are only 4.5-point underdogs after losses of 20 and 12 points in the first two games of the series.
The four factors for the whole series are being swept by the Philadelphia 76ers, though the most important one -- effective field goal percentage (eFG%) -- is pretty close. The Sixers are shooting 55.6% by eFG% with the Nets at 54.7%.
The big difference has been offensive rebounding in favor of the 76ers.
With that in mind, it makes it a bit easier to trust the long-term data and take the points with the home side here. My model thinks the spread should be 1.5 points, and numberFire's model likes the Nets +4.5 as a three-star play.
I also see a path to the over based on the good shooting for each side in the series. numberFire's model thinks this game is 57.2% likely to go over 210.0 points.
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Sacramento Kings +6.0 (-110)
A big note here is that Draymond Green is suspended for Game 3 for stomping on Sacramento Kings star Domantas Sabonis. Andrew Wiggins is also questionable for the Golden State Warriors due to a shoulder injury.
In games with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson active but Green and Wiggins off the floor, the Warriors hold a net rating of -6.8 when removing low-leverage possessions from the data. With Wiggins also active, that net rating jumps up to -0.7.
Golden State has been a bit unlucky because they've got the superior eFG% (56.1% to 50.8%) but are losing out in the other three factors.
Accounting for the relevant health of each side, I am not seeing much in the way of betting value in this game other than taking the 6.0 points for the Kings.
My model thinks the spread should be closer to 4.0, and numberFire's algorithm likes the Kings +6.0 as a two-star recommendation.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers +3.0 (-110)
After dropping Game 1 to the Los Angeles Clippers, the Phoenix Suns rallied in the valley to pick up a 123-109 Game 2 win.
Through two games, the Suns hold a 58.1% eFG%, dominating the Clippers' mark of 50.0%. Rebounding and free throws have kept the Clippers afloat while their offense has struggled a bit without Paul George (though they have a nice offensive rating of 116.6 through two games thanks to their rebounding and free throw tendencies).
They now return to Los Angeles, where they are 8-5 since the All-Star break with a strong opponent-adjusted net rating of +4.5 The Suns haven't traveled particularly well this season and hold a 17-24 road record.
Overall, my model thinks the spread here should be Clippers -0.5, so taking the 3.0 points is pretty logical. The numberFire algorithm also likes the Clippers +3.0 as a two-star suggestion.
