March Madness: Previewing Sunday’s Round of 32 Matchups
Cincinnati (6) vs. UCLA (3)
This game is such a tight matchup that there's really no favorite, per our models. Our metrics give Cincinnati a 50.2% chance to beat UCLA. Cincinnati is coming off of a 14-point win over Kansas State, and UCLA is coming off of a 17-point win against Kent State.
UCLA has the best offensive rating and eFG% in the country, and the Bruins will take a very offensive approach to the matchup. Cincinnati is the opposite -- they excel on defense, holding teams to just a 44.3 eFG%. Whose strength will prevail in the final game of the first weekend?
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
| Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | UCLA | 14.6 | 6.1 | 0.660 |
| TJ Leaf | UCLA | 16.2 | 8.3 | 0.652 |
| Bryce Alford | UCLA | 15.8 | 2.5 | 0.603 |
| Jacob Evans | Cincinnati | 13.7 | 4.1 | 0.567 |
| Kyle Washington | Cincinnati | 13.1 | 6.7 | 0.535 |
| Gary Clark | Cincinnati | 10.6 | 7.8 | 0.548 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
| Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 UCLA | 16.39 | 120.7 | 0.595 | 52.7 | 13.7 | 100.6 | 0.484 | 14.1 |
| #6 Cincinnati | 14.92 | 113.6 | 0.523 | 53.3 | 13.1 | 91.6 | 0.443 | 18.3 |
