NCAA Tournament: Which Teams Could Be Seeded Too Low on Selection Sunday?
Nevada Wolfpack
nF Rating: 17th
nF Projected Seed: 6
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 8
Nevada looks to be a classic case of a team getting somewhat overlooked because of its conference. The Mountain West leaders were unranked in the AP Poll for much of the season and are currently ranked 24th in both the AP and Coaches Poll. They seems headed for an 8 seed, according to the Bracket Matrix (which aggregates over 100 projected brackets), while our algorithm suggests they are headed for a 6 seed.
Even that latter figure might be slightly undercutting the Wolfpack, who are 17th in our power ratings and 19th at KenPom. Nevada is 22-5, and while they lack the signature wins that catch the committee’s eye, their average margin of victory is 15th in the nation (+11.5; they are 3-2 against the RPI Top 50, with a win over Rhode Island and a sweep of Boise State and losses to Texas Tech Red and TCU).
Three of their losses have come away from home by four points or fewer and another came in overtime at Texas Tech (which is currently ninth in our ratings). Their worst loss was an 86-76 home loss to UNLV (63rd by our metrics), but that was also a game where the Wolfpack shot just 26.6% from three.
Three-point shooting tends to be random in college basketball, and Nevada both shoots and gives up a lot of three-point attempts (taking over 40% of their shots from deep on offense while allowing a 39.1% attempt rate on defense; the national average is 37.4%). This makes them one of the more inconsistent teams in the nation, and for lower-seeded teams trying to spring upsets, this is a feature, not a bug.
Generally, you want underdog teams who have a high level of variance, because if an inferior team plays at its median level, that likely will not be enough to upset a favorite. If the inferior team has a high ceiling, however, an upset could be more likely.
The combination of Nevada's quality and this variance could make the 'Pack an intriguing Sweet 16 sleeper.
