NCAA Tournament: Which Teams Could Be Seeded Too High on Selection Sunday?

Alabama Crimson Tide

nF Rating: 41

nF Projected Seed: 5

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed: 7

Alabama has the statistical markings of a fringe top-40 team, but it could be heading toward a seed line that is more appropriate for a fringe top-25 team.

The Crimson Tide have a number of good wins the committee will like, including five against the RPI Top-25 teams (unfortunately, the committee still uses the RPI). However, losses should matter, too, and Alabama has seven losses to teams outside the RPI Top 50, including three by double-digit margins.

Their calling card has been defense. Per KenPom, the Tide rank 6th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency while they are 100th in offensive efficiency. Some regression may be in order, however, as a big part of their success on defense has been their opponents shooting poorly on three-point attempts.

The Crimson Tide do not force turnovers, grab defensive rebounds or avoid fouling at an elite rate -- ranking 129th, 226th, and 221st, respectively, in these categories -- but instead rely on an effective field goal defense that checks in 16th in the nation.

That's not a bad thing in its own right, as field goal shooting is generally the most important element of team efficiency. That said, three-point shooting percentages are inherently random in small samples, and the best way of stopping opposing three-pointers is denying three-point attempts. Also, Ken Pomeroy found that defenses have considerably more control over the two-point shooting percentages of their opponents than they do their three-point percentages.

This could be an issue for Alabama, which is a solid 42nd nationally against two-pointers (46.0%) but has been unsustainably good against three-pointers, ranking 19th (31.2%). The Tide are also 168th in terms of three-pointers allowed per field goal attempt.

The squad, which already seems a tad overrated, could be headed for serious regression beyond the arc.