NCAA Bracketology: Which Unranked Teams Will Get In?
![Which non-ranked teams have a great chance to go dancing in March? Find out what our algorithm thinks.](https://d1tjohjvimcqgl.cloudfront.net/website/articles/12724_a11.jpg)
One of the best parts of March Madness is the build up, the road to get in. Even if some schools get slotted into an ill-fated 16 seed, an NCAA Tournament berth can be historic for programs with a lacking track record.
Of course, some schools -- power conference teams and teams firmly in the AP Top 25 -- are pretty much shoo-ins to lock up a spot even before guaranteed bids are earned or conference tournaments start.
Which teams never ranked in the AP top 25 this season are looking likely to get a chance to dance, based on our bracketology projections?
These are the schools without an AP rank during the season with at least a 50% chance shot to make the tournament, per our algorithm. nERD indicates expected point differential compared to an average team.
nF Rank | School | nERD | Proj. Record | Tournament Odds | Proj. Seed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
45 | North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks | 10.05 | 24.5-4.5 | 93.44% | 11 |
26 | Southern Methodist Mustangs | 13.53 | 24.1-6.9 | 88.70% | 9 |
52 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 9.07 | 24.4-5.6 | 88.23% | 12 |
85 | New Mexico State Aggies | 5.54 | 22.8-4.2 | 87.28% | 12 |
34 | Dayton Flyers | 11.66 | 21.2-7.8 | 83.64% | 11 |
40 | Illinois State Redbirds | 10.70 | 22.0-7.0 | 83.15% | 12 |
30 | Northwestern Wildcats | 12.66 | 23.4-9.6 | 79.57% | 7 |
65 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 7.71 | 23.4-7.6 | 78.56% | 12 |
89 | Akron Zips | 5.40 | 22.7-7.3 | 77.78% | 13 |
74 | Vermont Catamounts | 6.53 | 22.5-7.5 | 76.49% | 14 |
41 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 10.68 | 21.9-9.1 | 75.97% | 11 |
86 | Monmouth Hawks | 5.51 | 22.6-8.4 | 73.42% | 13 |
80 | Valparaiso Crusaders | 5.80 | 22.2-7.8 | 69.32% | 13 |
123 | Winthrop Eagles | 2.77 | 20.4-6.6 | 69.24% | 14 |
77 | Texas-Arlington Mavericks | 6.12 | 20.0-9.0 | 69.14% | 13 |
96 | Belmont Bruins | 4.79 | 19.3-6.7 | 68.52% | 14 |
31 | Marquette Golden Eagles | 12.55 | 19.6-10.4 | 65.35% | 10 |
60 | East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 8.50 | 20.6-8.4 | 60.66% | 14 |
95 | Bucknell Bison | 4.82 | 22.1-8.9 | 60.62% | 15 |
33 | Texas Christian Horned Frogs | 11.84 | 18.4-11.6 | 60.14% | 9 |
37 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 11.46 | 17.1-12.9 | 58.83% | 8 |
124 | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 2.69 | 18.7-8.3 | 55.03% | 15 |
25 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 13.63 | 16.7-13.3 | 52.04% | 10 |
- The North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks are 20-2 and 45th by our nERD rating (and 44th per KenPom.com). With the College of Charleston Cougars ranking 100th by nERD, UNC Wilmington has a massive lead over the second-best team in the Colonial Athletic Conference in terms of efficiency.
- The Southern Methodist Mustangs rank 26th by nERD, second in the American Athletic Conference behind the Cincinnati Bearcats (18th). We project SMU for a 9 seed this year. They're the fifth-slowest team in the nation, per our metrics.
- The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 8-0 in Conference USA play and 18-3 overall. They rank 52nd by nERD and 48th according to KenPom. They're looking to build on their performance last year, when they defeated Michigan State as a 15 seed.
- In the WAC, the New Mexico State Aggies are 6-0 and 19-2 overall. They do rank just 85th by nERD, but that's a massive jump on the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners, the second-best team in the conference, who rank 134th by nERD.
- The Dayton Flyers rank 30th according to our metrics and have an 83.64% chance to go dancing, which they've done three years in a row.