College Football Playoff: Which Teams Are Staying or Going?

Louisville Cardinals

Despite losing to Clemson back in October, we actually have the Cardinals just ahead of the Tigers in our rankings. One reason for that might be that it was in Death Valley and Louisville still lost by a mere six points in what turned out to be a shootout.

No matter the reason, our numbers believe the Cardinals, with a 27.28 nERD, are a better overall team. That's why, with any slip up from the top five teams, Louisville is poised to hop into the top four of the Committee's rankings.

As for their own schedule, there isn't much left to worry about. Wake Forest, Houston, and Kentucky carry a combined nERD of 8.39 into the last three weeks of the season. That includes a Kentucky team with a negative nERD and a 5-4 record on the year.

Houston, at 25th in our power rankings, represents the toughest matchup for Louisville. But, the numbers tell us that they're set to finish the season with one loss. If they do so, Louisville should at least maintain their spot among the top five to six teams.

They're unlikely to overtake anyone absent an outside circumstance, such as a loss among the top five. If the chips fall just right, though, we could have an opportunity to see Lamar Jackson play on the biggest stage yet.