College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/19/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech -16.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Southern Mississippi is in the midst of a dreadful season as they are 1-9 overall and 0-9 against FBS opponents. The Golden Eagles have lost five games by at least 24 points, so more than half of their losses have not been competitive.
Louisiana Tech has had a strange season this year. They are 3-7 overall, including 2-7 against FBS opponents, but they have played well against several quality foes. Louisiana Tech lost by one point in the opening week away against Mississippi State (6-4, 4-3 in SEC and 26th in the AP Poll), lost by seven on the road to current AP No. 25 North Carolina State and fell by just two against an 8-2 Southern Methodist team.
Louisiana Tech has played a difficult schedule, and they appear to be more talented than their record indicates. Our model projects them to win by a 35.09-15.86 score, and we give them a 61.45% chance to cover as 16.5-point favorites.
Arizona vs. Washington State
Washington State -13.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Washington State is playing for bowl eligibility, as they are 5-5 and looking for that all-important sixth victory. The Cougars have won four out of their last six games after a somewhat slow start to their season, and they are 4-3 in the conference for the year.
Arizona is having a terrible season at 1-9 (1-6 in the Pac 12), which includes a loss to FCS opponent Northern Arizona back in September. The Wildcats are averaging 17.14 points per game in conference play and allowing 30.29.
Our algorithm forecasts Washington State to win 35.27-18.26 and projects a 62.72% likelihood of the Cougars covering the 13.5-pint spread, making this a three-unit bet.
Air Force vs. Nevada
Air Force +1.5: 2 Stars out of 5
This is a quality Mountain West matchup between Air Force and Nevada. Both teams are 7-3 for the season and 4-2 in conference play.
Air Force has been particularly impressive, winning six of their seven games by 10 or more points with an average margin of victory of 17.14 in their seven wins. The Falcons' three defeats were all by seven points or fewer, including an overtime loss to Army two weeks ago.
Nevada has also suffered close losses in two-point defeats to San Diego State and Fresno State. Their only non-competitive game of the season was away to Kansas State in Week 3, when they lost in a 38-17 blowout.
Our model does not see much separating these teams, projecting a 38.37-35.56 Air Force victory. We do like Air Force against the spread, giving them 61.3% odds to cover as 1.5-point underdogs.
