NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Friday 12/17/21

Tom Sokol Dec 17th, 2021
Coastal Carolina looks to build on its 10-2 record with a bowl game victory over Northern Illinois. How should we bet Friday's two-game slate?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Middle Tennessee State vs Toledo

Under 50.5: 1 Star out of 5

This game features 6-6 Middle Tennessee State against 7-5 Toledo to kick off the 2021-22 bowl season. Toledo ended their season on a three-game winning streak and comes into this game with momentum.

Toledo is the favorite, and they are led by their strong defense which only allowed 21.0 points per game this season. Middle Tennessee State averages 29.75 points per game, but we project them to struggle against Toledo’s defense -- projecting them for only 18.47 points. On the flip we side, we like Toledo to score 30.17, slightly below their season average of 34.17.

Our model projects a 52.54% likelihood for the under, and that is a one-star betting opportunity.

Coastal Carolina vs Northern Illinois

Coastal Carolina -10.5: 3 Stars out of 5

Coastal Carolina followed up their 11-1 season from last year with a 10-2 record this season. Their two losses came by a combined five points. 7 of Coastal’s 10 wins came by more than 10 points, so they have proven to be more than capable of dominating their opponents.

Northern Illinois won the MAC at 9-4 with a 41-23 victory over Kent State in the Championship. However, the MAC is a weak conference that has gone 7-18 in bowl games since the 2016 season. We think Northern Illinois will struggle in this one by projecting a 40.32-24.97 loss for the Huskies.

Our model gives Coastal a 62.59% chance to cover the 10.5 point spread -- a three-star bet for Friday.