College Football Betting Guide: TaxAct Camellia Bowl (Georgia State vs. Ball State)
Christmas Day isn't all about the NBA when it comes to the sports world.
We've got an early bowl game on tap between the Georgia State Panthers (7-5) and the Ball State Cardinals (6-6).
Neither team is known for lighting it up on offense (Ball State is averaging 336.3 yards per game, ranking 110th in the nation, and Georgia State is averaging 383.4, ranking 80th). Neither team is eclipsing 26.3 points per game, either (Ball State is averaging 24.4 points per game).
How does that impact the spread, moneyline, and over/under?
Game Overview
Here's a snapshot of each team's pass and rush offense and defense ranks based on adjusted passing yards per attempt and rushing yards per carry.
| Team | Passing Offense | Passing Defense | Rushing Offense | Rushing Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State Panthers | 115 | 24 | 102 | 62 |
| Ball State Cardinals | 114 | 77 | 40 | 26 |
CollegeFootballData.com's predicted points added (PPA) model ranks the Georgia State offense 62nd in the nation with Ball State coming in 108th. Each defense is pretty poor (Georgia State is 92nd, and Ball State is 87th).
In total, numberFire's metrics rank Georgia State 92nd in the country and would expect them to lose by 7.54 points at a neutral location against an average opponent. Ball State is 99th in our rankings with an expected point differential of -9.49.
My ELO-based model has Georgia State (-6.5) slightly better than Ball State (-8.7). Georgia State's spread-adjusted point differential is +1.1; Ball State's is -0.9.
Algorithm-Based Bets
Our detailed game projections are seeing pretty efficient lines on this game. There's no pick on the spread (Georgia State is favored by 5.5). The median point differential is 6.2 based on our game sims, but it's Ball State a tick more likely to cover (51.1%) than Georgia State.
The algorithm here does like Georgia State's moneyline (-225) as a one-star lean.
The under (50.5) is getting the highest recommendation in this game: a two-unit suggestion. Via our algorithm, that under is 57.9% likely, which is tied to an expected return of 10.4%.
Georgia State games are 6-6 on the under but have stayed 2.3 points shy, on average, of the total.
Ball State unders are 8-3 in their 11 games, and their contests have averaged 5.1 points below the closing total.
