College Football Conference Championship Bets and Win Totals: Mid-American Conference
College football season is nearly upon us, and there are plenty of NCAA football odds and outrights on FanDuel Sportsbook we can explore.
Last season, no team in the MAC reached the 10-win mark, though Northern Illinois and Central Michigan got to nine victories. Four teams -- the Akron Zips, the Ohio Bobcats, the Buffalo Bulls, and the Bowling Green Falcons -- fell shy of five wins.
Here's how the conference winner odds shake out for this year.
| Team | Conference Odds | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|
| Toledo | +340 | 8.5 |
| Miami Ohio | +380 | 6.5 |
| Central Michigan | +600 | 7.0 |
| Kent State | +600 | 5.5 |
| Northern Illinois | +700 | 6.5 |
| Western Michigan | +800 | 6.5 |
| Eastern Michigan | +1000 | 6.0 |
| Ohio | +1600 | 5.5 |
| Buffalo | +2500 | 5.5 |
| Ball State | +2500 | 4.5 |
| Bowling Green | +3000 | 4.5 |
| Akron | +5000 | 2.5 |
Conference Winner(s) to Bet
Toledo Rockets (+340) - Led by a defense projected to rank 25th in SP+, the Rockets are the chalk pick in the conference for good reason. They're the class of the division by ESPN's FPI (rating at a -1.2, sure, but it's still the only mark in the conference better than -6.9).
Toledo returns 81.9% of its passing predicted points added (PPA) behind Dequan Finn. My model views them as favored in eight of their games with four "easy" wins where they should be favored by at least a touchdown.
Both Western Michigan (72.7) and Central Michigan (71.3) have average consensus rankings comparable to Toledo's (75.8), but Toledo is substantially less volatile and is seen as more of an anchor play in the conference.
Central Michigan Chippewas (+600) - Central Michigan is one of the two teams in the conference with an FPI of -6.9 (Buffalo is the other). Notably, though, the Massey consensus rankings have the Chippewas at the top of the conference. Their peak rank of 33rd among the consensus ranks is the only mark inside the top 45 in the conference, as well.
Though Toledo has a better schedule, not a whole lot in the data separates Central Michigan and Miami (OH). The transfer portal wasn't kind to Central Michigan, sure, but the value is there.
Win Total(s) to Target
Ohio Bobcats | Under 5.5 (-130) - The Bobcats will have a new head coach (Tim Albin) this season and boast the 110th-ranked defense by SP+. They find themselves ranked 115th in the Massey consensus rankings, and while consistency sounds great when looking at projections, Ohio finds itself consistently projected as a bottom-tier team. None of the consensus ranks have Ohio better than 96th.
On their schedule are two virtual locked-in losses against Penn State and Iowa State, and they're slated to be favored in just three games overall. There's not a lot of wiggle room if they are to drop those winnable games.
Bowling Green Falcons | Under 4.5 (-145) - Bowling Green is returning a lot of its production. What I should say is that they're returning a high percentage of their production: 99.2% of their overall usage. The main issue there is that they ranked eighth-worst in PPA per play on the offensive side of the ball. They project to rank 108th offensively and 77th defensively in SP+.
Their best rank among the consensus grouping is 107th, as well.
