College Football Conference Championship Bets and Win Totals: American Athletic Conference
College football season is nearly upon us, and there are plenty of NCAA football odds and outrights on FanDuel Sportsbook we can explore.
Led by the 13-1 Cincinnati Bearcats (+250 to win the conference this season) and the 12-2 Houston Cougars (+200), the American Athletic Conference definitely had some legitimate teams in it last season, and that duo is joined by the Central Florida Knights (+250) as the three clear favorites in the conference to win.
Here's how the conference winner odds shake out for this year overall.
| Team | Conference Odds | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|
| Houston | +200 | 9.5 |
| Cincinnati | +250 | 9.0 |
| UCF | +250 | 8.5 |
| SMU | +900 | 7.0 |
| Memphis | +1200 | 7.5 |
| East Carolina | +2500 | 6.5 |
| Tulsa | +3000 | 5.5 |
| Tulane | +5000 | 6.5 |
| South Florida | +5000 | 4.5 |
| Navy | +8000 | 4.0 |
| Temple | +10000 | 2.5 |
Conference Winner(s) to Bet
Cincinnati Bearcats (+250) - The data is pretty promising for the Bearcats for another strong season despite key losses that include Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner. Cincinnati is projected to rank top-20 in both offensive and defensive SP+, making them one of just five teams in the nation to hold that distinction.
Cincinnati is rating out as expected touchdown favorites in nine games, via my preseason model.
Houston Cougars (+200) - The top-heavy nature of the AAC makes it tough to chase long shots for an outright winner. Houston is returning 83.5% of its usage and 77.0% of its predicted points added (PPA). In total, they rank eighth in returning offensive PPA, so it's not that hard to see why they're the favorites to win the conference.
They're a balanced squad with the 42nd-ranked projected defense by SP+, and what really puts them over the edge is the easiest schedule in the conference, according to my preseason model. They're six-point favorites or more in nine games.
Win Total(s) to Target
Memphis Tigers | Under 7.5 (-140) - The Tigers will look to put a 6-6 season in the rearview mirror and reach eight wins to beat this total, but that's not looking great. Memphis is rating out as a six-point favorite in just three games and has three more field-goal games while also seeing two games as six-point 'dogs on the schedule, too.
Memphis has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but the models are pointing to an under on this win total.
East Carolina Pirates | Under 6.5 (-135) - East Carolina is projecting to be about as average an offense and defense (75th and 79th, respectively, by SP+) as we get despite a lot of returning production.
The schedule features four games where they should be touchdown underdogs and two more field-goal games that could be the end of their seven-win season. In total, my model projects them for 5.5 wins.
