NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Sunday 9/4/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Sep 2nd, 2022

Sunday's college football game will bring an interconference clash between two title winners from the past decade. The Florida State Seminoles got their feet wet with a win over FCS Duquesne last week, and now they'll travel to play the LSU Tigers -- but it won't be in Death Valley.

This one will be at the Caesar's Superdome in New Orleans. So, it's still a "home" game for LSU, but the neutral-site venue could bring some more fans over from Tallahassee.

How should we bet this one?

Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Florida State Seminoles at LSU Tigers

Florida State ML (+134) - 2 Stars
Florida State +3.5 (-124) - 3 Stars

Even with the "home" edge in the Superdome, LSU is in for a tough one.

With Florida State playing last week in a de facto preseason game, their offense is ready to roll, and it's a solid unit. Quarterback Jordan Travis was a godsend for Florida State last season, giving them quality play at a position they have struggled to fill since Jameis Winston left. He finished with a 62.9% completion percentage a year ago, and he completed 73.3% of his throws in last week's tune-up.

LSU can get there with Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, but he's yet to be officially announced as the starter.

numberFire's model sides with ESPN's SP+ projections entering the season. While FSU (45th) and LSU (47th) are in the same range offensively, the Seminoles' defense is pegged as the 15th-best in the country. LSU is not far behind in 27th, but it's an advantage for the 'Noles.

With an offense in rhythm and a defensive advantage (on paper), Florida State wins this game outright 51.4% of the time -- according to our model.

That leads to plenty of value on FSU on the moneyline, where they have just 42.7% implied odds. But for those wary of the pro-LSU crowd, a -124 price (55.4% implied probability) on FSU cover as 3.5-point 'dogs is also available. We think they cover 63.0% of the time.