College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/2/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Old Dominion
Virginia Tech Moneyline (-245): 4 Stars out of 5
Over (47.5): 4 Stars out of 5
Virginia Tech Spread (-5.5): 2 Stars out of 5
After sitting 1-6 through mid-October, a five-game win streak to end the regular season earned the Old Dominion Monarchs a bowl bid (an eventual loss to Tulsa) last season.
For the Virginia Tech Hokies, an up-and-down season ultimately ended up 6-7 (and 4-4 within the ACC).
Old Dominion returns 90.1% of its offensive usage from last season, ranking them third in the nation.
Virginia Tech is returning just 32.7% and will be starting Marshall transfer Grant Wells at quarterback. However, they are built more on their defense and rank 37th in projected SP+ in that category.
Old Dominion is outside the top 90 in both offensive and defensive projections.
numberFire's model loves the Hokies to start off 1-0 and views them as 81.2% likely to win outright. The Hokies are receiving 73% of spread money and 82% of spread bets.
Illinois at Indiana (-0.5)
Illinois Spread (+0.5): 4 Stars out of 5
Illinois Moneyline (-104): 5 Stars out of 5
The line here has been moving in favor of Illinois, and that's reflected in the betting trends. While only 56% of spread bets are on Illinois, that comes with 71% of the money, indicating heavier bets are coming in on Illinois to drive down the line.
numberFire's model really loves Illinois in this game and actually gives them a 71.5% chance to win outright, which is why the moneyline is such a green light.
As for the Indiana Hoosiers, they do hold home-field advantage but return just 37.7% of their usage from a year ago -- compared to 69.4% for Illinois.
On the strength of an elite defense that was 32nd in SP+ a year ago, Illinois ultimately ranked 64th in overall SP+ while the Hoosiers were 100th in SP+, resulting in a 2-10 record.
The Illini beat Wyoming 38-6 in their opener while earning a 52% offensive success rate and holding Wyoming to a 27% success rate.
