NHL Playoffs First Round Preview: Eastern Conference
Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
This is the matchup that nobody wanted to put themselves through: the path through Washington D.C.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have earned the honor to take on the juggernaut that calls the Verizon Center home, and under no circumstances will this be an easy series for the young team headlined by Auston Matthews.
Washington has dominated the league for the second straight year, capturing the Presidents' Trophy as the team with the most points in the entire league. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, as always, were the key pieces to the offensive powerhouse, while star studded defensive capabilities from deadline acquisition Kevin Shattenkirk and nearly flawless goaltending from perennial All-Star Braden Holtby have only further defined the success found in the District of Columbia.
Can Toronto be the David that takes down Goliath though? If the rookie trio of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitchell Marner have anything to say about it, we could see a long, hard-fought series that goes the distance.
Washington's main advantage in this series is that of Braden Holtby, as he, in almost every category, is far superior to that of Frederik Andersen. That's not to imply that Andersen isn't perfectly capable of taking Toronto to round two but rather saying that Toronto has a very tall task ahead of them.
They will have to play at a level that is universes above how they normally conduct play to give themselves the best shot of taking down the giants in the East.
We can see this to be true when we check our metrics, as Washington (0.95 nERD) dominates the rest of the league (no other team has a nERD above 0.60).
Toronto (0.1), on the other hand, is ranked 16th and is barely better than an average squad.
The season series is all telling of what we can expect. Washington has taken two of three, but it also shows us that if the right Leafs' team shows up, they are capable of anything.
Our algorithms are much more decisive with this series compared to the rest of the Eastern Conference matchups. Washington is projected to advance 73.84% of the time.
