NHL Betting Guide: Monday 4/12/21
It's NHL Trade Deadline day, and we have eight games to choose from.
Here are a few plays from our daily projections!
Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Kings moneyline (+154): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 5.5 (-108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Los Angeles Kings have been more competitive over their recent schedule. That should help them tonight against a Vegas Golden Knights squad that is relying on a more defensive brand of hockey.
In four of their last five games, the Golden Knights have limited opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five. Scoring chances are also at a premium, with opponents being held to 21 or fewer in three of five. The improved defensive metrics have given the Knights an advantage in expected goals-for percentage as they have posted an expected goals-for percentage of 58.2% or higher in four of five.
The concerning part is that the Golden Knights have decreased their offensive output over the last three games. Vegas was overachieving by a substantial margin and came crashing back down to earth against the Arizona Coyotes last time out. At five-on-five, the Knights attempted only four high-danger chances against the Yotes, after attempting 25 and 17 in their two games prior. The Knights should enter a cooling-off period as they come back down to average.
On the other hand, the Kings are starting to heat up. Los Angeles has attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in three of their last four, equalling or out-chancing their opponents in all four games. Their expected goals-for percentage was above 50.0% in two of the four games, they have out-shot their opponents in all four games, and out-possessed them in three of four.
The Kings' improved effort would go a long way to helping them secure a victory tonight. Based on our projections, the Kings are the right side to be on when they take on the Knights in LA. Kings moneyline and under 5.5 are both rated as one-star plays.
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Blue Jackets moneyline (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
It was a much-improved effort from the Columbus Blue Jackets last time out against the Chicago Blackhawks but the result didn't go the Jackets' way. We're anticipating a different outcome when these teams meet for the second time in three days.
Columbus dictated five-on-five play on Saturday night, out-possessing the Blackhawks by putting up a 57.8% Corsi rating, and out-chancing them in scoring chances 26-20 and high-danger chances 12-7. Penalties were an issue for the Jackets, however, as they allowed the Hawks to have five powerplay attempts, compared to their lone powerplay attempt. Expect a more disciplined effort from the Jackets as they look to wrap up their four-game homestand on a winning note.
The Saturday night game against the Jackets marked the fifth time in seven games in which the Blackhawks were outplayed at five-on-five. It was the fifth time that they attempted nine or fewer high-danger chances and the fifth time they were out-possessed. Chicago's PDO has climbed above 1.000 during that span and they are relying on Kevin Lankinen to help steal games.
Lankinen's been much more reliable at home compared to on the road. He's stopping 92.1% of shots at the United Center, compared to 90.6% on the road. Lankinen also hasn't posted a save percentage above 88.6% in any of his last five road starts.
Based on our projections, the advantage lies in backing the Jackets tonight. From a metrics perspective, Chicago has been struggling and should see their luck run out. The Blue Jackets should come out on top tonight if they can avoid the penalty box. Taking the Blue Jackets on the moneyline is a one-star play.
