NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 10/18/22
Hockey is back!
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Sorokin/Semyon Varlamov ($8,500): The New York Islanders are solid -194 home favorites tonight and in a spot to come away with a win over the San Jose Sharks. There's no indication of who will be starting for the Islanders tonight, but either will be a great option. The Islanders are known as a strong defensive team and are showing that this season, allowing only 2.12 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (ninth-lowest in the league).
On the other side, the Sharks' offense has been non-existent to start the season. They are in the bottom five of the league in Corsi For (46.63) (total shot attempts created) and goals scored (1.67), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. It's an easy matchup for either goalie, who should be able to come away with the win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Connor McDavid ($10,400): McDavid is the clear top option on the slate and is a borderline must-roster tonight. The Edmonton Oilers have a slate-high 4.13 implied goal total taking on the Buffalo Sabres. The over/under is set at 7.0. We are going to see plenty of scoring in this game, and that means McDavid is going to be involved.
He has five NHL points and nine shots on goal through two games, which is certainly a lot, but there's nothing indicating the best player in the world can't keep this pace up. His role on the top forward line and top power-play unit put him in a spot for a multi-point performance every night -- something he will replicate against the Sabres.
Nikita Kucherov ($9,200): With a 4.03 implied goal total, the Tampa Bay Lightning are another team expected to pour on the offense tonight when they host the Philadelphia Flyers. To start the season, Tampa's offense has been under-producing based on their metrics, and the Flyers' defense has been over-producing.
As an example, the Flyers have allowed only 2.14 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 10th-best in the league. However, their expected goals allowed in the same situations sits at 3.19, which would be the sixth-worst in the league.
A hot start has led them to some wins, but their defense is not nearly as good as the results they've shown. This is a spot to trust the Lightning and their offense, which is due for an increase in production after underproducing to start the season.
Kucherov is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 12 shots on goal, but no goals so far. That changes tonight, and he finds the back of the net.
Value Skaters
Dawson Mercer ($5,300): The New Jersey Devils carry the third-highest (3.65) implied goal total tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Devils are a young team with plenty of offensive talent but some question marks on defense. They are going to be in a ton of high-scoring games, which is great for fantasy production.
Mercer is on the third forward line and the second power-play unit, which should put him in a spot to be a solid point-per-dollar option tonight. Despite only a single assist and no goals in the first two games, it's been an encouraging start for Mercer, who has 11 shots on goal. Generating constant offensive pressure will put him in a spot to find the back of the net -- especially against a weak Ducks lineup.
Nino Niederreiter ($5,100): Niederreiter is off to a blazing-hot start with four goals in four games for the Nashville Predators. He's got the hot hand right now while skating on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which is a spot that should allow him to produce at a consistent rate. While likely not a rate of at a goal per game, he'll hold plenty of fantasy value.
The Predators come in with a strong 61.52 Corsi For per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the 10th-best in the league. Tonight, they are facing a Los Angeles Kings team on the second night of a back-to-back, who are allowing the eight-most (62.44), shot attempts in the same situations.
It's a lopsided matchup heavily in favor of the Predators.
