NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/25/22
It's always great to start the week with three dubs, including another under from our beloved Hurricanes.
Tuesday's 10-game slate has plenty of action to choose from, but where does our model see the best value? I'll show you.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings
Red Wings ML (+100) - 2 Stars
I did want to get a side in here today, and this is a perfect spot our model has pinpointed.
The Devils were destroyed last night, and now they're sending backup netminder Vitek Vanecek to the crease on Tuesday. Vanecek isn't fully rested after having to relieve Mackenzie Blackwood last night, and he allowed five goals in his first start of the season -- against this exact same Red Wings squad.
Detroit is rested coming into this one, and they've had a really nice season so far. They've yet to lose in regulation, and Ville Husso has done the trick for their goaltending woes of seasons past. He is 14th in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (2.79 GSAx).
A rested home team against a backup goalie at +100 odds? That's a phenomenal prognosis for a win. numberFire's model agrees, pegging the Wings to win 59.1% of the time here against these exact 50.0% implied odds.
Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins
Under 6.5 (-128) - 3 Stars
Okay, let's try this again.
I jumped on the Stars' under in Ottawa yesterday, and then Dallas announced Scott Wedgewood would start the first leg of their back-to-back. The veteran did well enough to earn a push against six goals, but Jake Oettinger is on tap tonight with a great chance to do the same.
Oettinger is third in the NHL in GSAx (5.47). He's a stone wall that should help limit a Bruins offense that is tremendous. Boston is fourth in expected goals for per 60 minutes (3.81 xGF) this season.
The B's are also third-best in expected goals allowed per 60 (2.52 xGA), so expect tough sledding for the Dallas offense here, too.
All in all, our model is backing Oettinger and Linus Ullmark in this one. It's expecting this game to see fewer than seven goals 66.0% of the time. Even against the 56.1% implied odds at -128, that's a three-star wager.
Make sure to grab this quick before it drops to six.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings
Under 6.5 (-112) - 3 Stars
I'll tail our model with the same gut feeling -- the Lightning should turn it around soon.
Last year's East champs are off to a sluggish start defensively. They've allowed the third-most xGA per 60 minutes (3.77), and Andrei Vasilevskiy is just 13th in GSAx (2.85), which is a bit down from his top-10 mark for several years now.
Tonight, they'll face a Los Angeles Kings offense that has been better than expected, but it's also due for regression. They're scoring 3.24 goals per 60 minutes, but they've only posted 3.08 xGF per 60. They've been just the slightest bit lucky.
Sharp bettors are expecting a Bolts bounce back in this one with 89% of the money on both the under and Tampa's puckline here. If Vasilevskiy is flirting with a shutout, both of those are more than fair.
Specifically regarding the total, our model sees this game with fewer than seven goals 63.3% of the time. That's a no-brainer against these 52.7% implied odds.
