NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 12/7/22
Three pucklines yesterday resulted in three outright winners. We should have gone to the moneyline!
I won't make that mistake today with a sneaky spot at home, but which total stands out first?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers
Under 6.5 (-122) - 3 Stars
This Metropolitan Division matchup hasn't always been a battle of elite goaltending, but it will be on Wednesday.
Prized offseason acquisition Darcy Kuemper has shored up Washington's goaltending issue. He's 11th in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (6.98 GSAx), which has helped the Caps hit the under in 16 of their 26 decided totals (with one push).
However, the real shocker is in Philadelphia. Carter Hart's breakout season continued with another win on Monday, and he's third in hockey in GSAx (14.11).
These two have been the stoppers for circling-the-drain defenses. Both of these squads are bottom 10 in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes. If you're not checking goaltending metrics, you might have missed this one.
This line is moving toward 6.0, but our model gives it a 64.8% chance to hit the under. A plus-money six-goal total would be more than acceptable, too.
Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche +1.5 (-172) - 4 Stars
Avalanche ML (+140) - 3 Stars
This line is a perfect example of an overreaction.
Sure, the defending Stanley Cup champions are going through an injury bug at the moment. Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Valeri Nichushkin will all be out of action on Wednesday, but now the Avs are a +140 underdog at home. That's absurd, and it's just too much value placed on three -- admittedly great -- players.
Colorado is a defense-first club, anyway. They're 12th in xGA per 60, and Alexandar Georgiev (3.59 GSAx) has been just fine to start his first year with the Avs.
Plus, the opposing Bruins are badly due for regression offensively. They're scoring 3.90 goals per 60 minutes, but they've posted just 3.44 expected goals per 60.
These betting splits are where you run for the hills. The Avalanche are getting just 6% of the puckline's handle and 6% of the spread's handle. Everyone is slamming the B's in this one, but the shorthanded Avs are probably desperate to avenge their 5-1 loss to Boston -- in Boston -- on Saturday.
Our model not only favors Colorado at home (55.3%) to win, but we have the Avs at 77.6% likely to cover the puckline at these reasonable 63.2% implied odds. The spread will be my primary wager, but I'll also sprinkle the outright for a half-unit.
