NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 12/22/22
I've sunk a few units into Anaheim this week, but thankfully, they're gone today.
Sometimes when you're struggling like I am, blindly trusting a value-based model like numberFire's can help clear perceptions about teams in your head.
Without any bias from me, here are our model's top three picks today.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators
Under 6.5 (-115) - 3 Stars
This one has a pretty neutral total at 6.5 goals around even money. The model still loves the under.
These two teams have scored the 13th- and 14th-fewest goals per 60 minutes in the NHL this year, so why is this total so high? Well, the teams are also both top-10 squads in Corsi For (total shot attempts created), leading to a higher expected goals rate and pointing many towards the over.
I'm in agreement with our model because a lot of the shot-generating talent in this one won't be available for both squads. Washington is missing Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and T.J. Oshie, and the Senators are missing Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle.
As a result, our model likes an under. It has a 62.8% chance to hit against these 53.5% implied odds.
Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins
Under 6.0 (-108) - 2 Stars
The Bruins are the best defensive team in hockey. They'll start smashing unders when their offense cools off, which will happen eventually.
Boston allows the fewest expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes in the NHL (2.54). Plus, netminder Linus Ullmark is fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (15.40 GSAx). Yet, the Bruns have an under rate of only 51.6%. It's because their offense has been fortunate.
They've scored 3.84 goals per 60 minutes despite an expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes rate of 3.41. That xGF mark is seventh in the NHL -- still really good but not second as they are in total goals. Connor Hellebuyck isn't a bad guy to start the regression process tonight as he's one of just three keepers above Ullmark in GSAx (16.93).
Our model awards a 64.1% chance that this game sees six goals or fewer. Even factoring in a potential push, the under is our third-best recommendation of the day.
Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks
Canucks ML (+114) - 3 Stars
Here's our model's best bet of the day. Unfortunately for it (given my cold spell), I agree.
The Kraken haven't earned this massive moneyline on the road. They're actually not a ton better than the Canucks despite the staunch gap in their records so far.
At the surface level, Seattle's goals-for rate (52.4 GF%) trumps Vancouver's (45.8%). However, there's an element of luck in scoring goals, and when you turn to expected-goals-for rates (xGF%), the Kraken (50.7%) have been fortunate, and the 'Nucks (47.4%) have been a bit unlucky.
Our nERD rankings have Seattle as the 18th-best team in hockey, and Vancouver is 23rd. The gap isn't as wide as these odds indicate.
That's why our model is giving the Canucks a 61.6% chance to win this game. They have a rest advantage and are at home. Against these 46.7% implied odds, fire away with confidence.
