NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/14/23
With love in the air, it's no surprise our model has its largest affinity for a bet in 2023. We've got a lofty, four-star recommendation in Winnipeg and two other multi-star ones behind it.
How should we bet Tuesday's nine-game slate?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
Under 6.0 (+100) - 3 Stars
The otherwise-surging Ottawa Senators gave us a large scare into overtime last night with their moneyline, so I don't mind -- in a way -- jumping off here.
The Sens now head from Ottawa to New York in less than 24 hours for a date with the Islanders, and their offense will have a tough task on tired legs.
Ilya Sorokin is that tough task. At 34.60 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), he leads the NHL by exactly 6.5 goals. For my money, he's the best team-independent goaltender in the league by a country mile, looking to shut down an Ottawa offense that's fifth in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes since January 1st (3.53).
On the other side, the Isles' offense hasn't been hard to shut down, either. They've posted the eighth-fewest xGF per 60 (2.86) since the calendar turned. Ottawa backup netminder Cam Talbot (2.96 GSAx) is a decent bet to keep his sheet relatively clean, too.
All in all, our model expects this bet to win outright 56.4% of the time and push another 10.3% of the time. Against these even 50.0% implied odds, we've spotted a value wager.
Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets
Jets ML (-150) - 4 Stars
Here is the model's proverbial valentine, and I'm not surprised when it has been leaking this crush to us all year.
As someone who checks the model daily, Seattle has been one of its least favorite teams all season, and the Jets have been one of its most undervalued. This matchup in Winnipeg is ripe for a strong lean from the model.
The Kraken have been a puzzling overperformer all year. They're 11th in actual goals-for percentage (GF%) at 52.9%, but they rank 22nd in expected-goals-for rate (50.5 xGF%).
Between the creases, the Jets are not only the better-performing squad (51.2 xGF%), but they'll also have a massive advantage in the goaltending department. Connor Hellebuyck is third in hockey in terms of GSAx (26.09), and Seattle's Martin Jones ranks 61st out of 82 netminders in that area (-1.51).
As a result, our model is forecasting a 73.4% chance that Winnipeg emerges victorious tonight against these 60.0% implied odds.
Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars
Under 5.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
As someone who loves leaning into goaltending metrics, I couldn't pass on the chance to do it here.
Linus Ullmark is likely the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy this year behind a 1.90 GAA. Even if you take the Bruins' elite defense, allowing 2.68 expected goals (xGA) per 60 minutes this year, out of the equation, Ullmark still grades out tremendously. He's fourth in the NHL in GSAx (25.11).
On the other side, Jake Oettinger's situation is incredibly similar. The Stars have accrued the 12th-fewest xGA per 60 minutes (2.94), and Oettinger's helped fill in the difference. Just behind Ullmark, he's fifth in GSAx (24.81).
Boston's elite offense earlier this year was the terror of taking an under with them, but they've cooled to just 2.83 xGF per 60 minutes since January 1st. That's the seventh-worst mark in the league during that time.
With two top-five goaltenders and two above-average defenses, it's no surprise this total sits low, but it might not be low enough. Our model expects five or fewer goals in this contest 58.5% of the time versus these 52.5% implied odds.
