NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 2/16/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,200): The Winnipeg Jets are strong -220 road favorites against the Columbus Blue Jackets, putting Hellebuyck in a spot for the win. The Jets continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league and are allowing just 2.24 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-best clip. This should line up well against the Blue Jackets, who are scoring 2.12 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, the fifth-fewest in the league.
It's an ideal matchup for Hellebuyck, who has allowed three or fewer goals in eight of his last 10 starts. He is an elite option in all formats tonight, and there's an outside chance at a shutout given this favorable matchup.
High-Salaried Skaters
Sebastian Aho ($8,100): With a slate-high 3.95 implied goal total, the Carolina Hurricanes are in for a big offensive night. If the -465 moneyline doesn't tell you enough, the Canes are in a spot to roll tonight against the Montreal Canadiens. That means we want to be targeting their top offensive players to capture some of that production, and it starts with Aho.
Over his last 10 games, he has 10 NHL points, 35 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots, giving us an elite level of production. This shouldn't come as a surprise since the Canes come in with a 66.5 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the best in the league.
On the other side, the Canadiens continue to be a weak defensive team and are allowing 2.77 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-most in the league. This is as lopsided of a matchup as you can possibly imagine, and it should end with a big performance from Aho and the Canes.
Tyler Toffoli ($7,200): Toffoli is on fire right now and is putting up big offensive numbers left and right, which makes him perfect for any type of lineup build. The Calgary Flames need to start picking up some wins if they want to stay in the Western Conference Wild Card race, and this matchup against the Detroit Red Wings is one they should be winning. The Wings are on the second night of a back-to-back, which means they will have their backup goalie in net.
Despite seeing inconsistent results in terms of winning games, the Flames' offense is putting up goals every night. Over the last three weeks, the Flames are scoring 3.63 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-best in the league. They also have a staggering 71.61 Corsi For, which is the third-best in the league over the last three weeks.
Toffoli is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, coming in with 11 NHL points and 36 shots on goal over his last 10 games. He's a great way to get a piece of Calgary.
Value Skaters
Ondrej Palat ($4,800): Palat and the New Jersey Devils have a 3.49 implied goal total tonight against the St. Louis Blues, putting them in a nice spot for some scoring. Palat is on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, and while he might not be an amazing pure-scorer, he is racking up fantasy points of late. Over his last 10 games, Palat has 3 Goals, 7 assists, 17 shots on goal, and 16 blocked shots. He simply gets it done every night because he is able to contribute in multiple categories.
The Blues are allowing 3.51 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks, which is the fourth-most in the league. With a strong offensive role, a good matchup and a modest salary, Palat should be in for another productive night on the ice.
Pavel Zacha ($4,900): Zacha has been sneaky-good for the Boston Bruins, totaling 9 NHL points and 19 shots on goal over his last 10 games. The Bruins have plenty of big names at the top of their lineup, and it often causes some of the other players to go a bit overlooked. But those others still offer plenty of fantasy value.
The matchup against the Nashville Predators is better than some may realize as we've seen the Preds' defense fall apart recently. In the last three weeks, the Predators are allowing 2.91 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-most in that span.
