NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/22/23
The NHL schedule has come to a crawl with just two games on Wednesday, but both have multi-unit recommendations from our model, so we can still boogie.
Which teams are our dancing partners tonight?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche ML (-154) - 3 Stars
Our model is pretty convinced about the Avalanche at home. These clubs are different, yet at the end of the day, they're likely in the same tier of quality playoff contenders. But there's a key edge in Colorado's direction.
Pittsburgh scores a ton. Since February 1st, they've posted the second-most expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes in the league (3.82). The Avs (3.00) are quite a bit below that torrid pace.
It's defensively where Colorado shines. They've ceded only 2.92 expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 in that same period, which is the 11th-best mark in the NHL. Pittsburgh (3.15) lags behind there.
The problem is that the goaltending isn't close. While Alexandar Georgiev snuck into the top 10 of the league in goals saved above expectation (15.16 GSAx) with a dominant win over Chicago on Monday, Tristan Jarry (-2.07 GSAx) has actively hurt the Pens at times.
That gap is the primary reason our model believes the Avalanche -- rested and at home -- win 70.7% of the time tonight. These odds imply just a 60.6% chance.
Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers
Coyotes +1.5 (+138) - 2 Stars
It wouldn't be a wacky two-game slate without an odd result. Perhaps, this game gives us one.
Not many are expecting Arizona to punch at Edmonton's weight class tonight, but the value is about the number -- and it's also about a developing issue for the Oilers.
Edmonton's strengths are with their skaters, who are led by the spectacular Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. In terms of expected-goal data, Since February 1st, the Oilers are fifth in expected scores and sixth at preventing them. They're a Stanley Cup contender on that alone.
With a 41.9% expected-goals-for rate in that same period (second-worst in the NHL), the Yotes aren't close.
This gap shrinks in goal, though.
Stuart Skinner made the All-Star Game for his first half, but Edmonton's netminder has posted -1.83 GSAx since the calendar turned to 2023. Compare that to Arizona's Connor Ingram, who has posted 11.88 GSAx in that same period.
Arizona's goaltending is a huge reason why our model believes they can keep it close tonight. We've got them pegged as 50.0% likely to cover this margin despite the odds implying just a 42.0% chance.
