NHL Betting Guide: Friday 3/24/23
There are just three games, but we can lean on one of the best "under" teams in the league and one of the best "cover" teams in the league to send us into the weekend happy.
How should we bet Friday's action on the ice?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets
Under 6.5 (-114) - 2 Stars
The Blue Jackets don't really have much time for defense, but they may have met their match to stay under this middle-of-the-road total today.
It's because the New York Islanders are an "under" club. Seeing as 37 of their 69 games have fallen short of the projected total, and it's pretty simple to see why. Since February 1st, they've posted the ninth-fewest expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes in the NHL (2.91).
Of course, that's only half the battle. The other has been won by the exceptional Ilya Sorokin, who leads the league with 44.45 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). That's over seven goals clear of second place Juuse Saros (37.22 GSAx), too.
Also, since the start of February, Columbus has scored the 10th-fewest goals per 60 minutes. They're generating chances in that period (59.93 Corsi For per 60; 10th-best in the NHL), but they've had trouble finding the back of the net. Sorokin should only exacerbate that issue.
Our model sees this game as 59.5% likely to fall short of seven goals, yet these odds imply just a 52.9% chance.
Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche
Coyotes +1.5 (+142) - 2 Stars
The coverin' Coyotes did it again on Wednesday.
They forced Edmonton into overtime, which continued an absurd streak of covering the puckline in 18 of their last 25 games. If there was ever a team to go on a run like this out of the public eye, it's this one.
Arizona is largely devoid of talent and was projected to be the worst team in the league this year, and they play in a college hockey arena. Even amidst this run, they've posted the second-lowest expected-goals-for rate (41.9 xGF%) in the league.
Their secret sauce is goaltending, led by the underrated Karel Vejmelka (10.73 GSAx). He's not quite been as stellar as Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev (14.83 GSAx), but this is a game where both teams should struggle to score. They're both bottom-13 clubs in xGF per 60 minutes since February 1st.
In a low-scoring, tight game, our model thinks there's value to back the Yotes once again. It sees them as 48.2% likely to cover the puckline tonight versus these 41.3% implied odds.
