NHL Betting Guide: Monday 3/27/23
numberFire's best bet of the day is currently on hold.
We don't have a confirmed goaltender in Minnesota, which is one of the most sizable gulfs in the league. The model loves the -130 moneyline there with Filip Gustavsson, but a downgrade to Marc-Andre Fleury could and should find the Wild a home 'dog to Seattle.
With the requisite pieces in place, we can fire at these two now, though.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks +1.5 (-105) - 2 Stars
Sometimes it pays to be awful.
The Ducks are arguably the league's worst team. In March, it's either been them or the team I'm backing in the next section. What could go wrong? At the very least, though, we're getting a really modest price for Anaheim to cover the spread against a significantly weakened Colorado squad.
The Avalanche just snuck by Arizona yesterday, and now, they'll have to visit the Ducks with backup goaltender Jonas Johansson in net. At just 1.51 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season, Johansson has been a significant drop from Alexandar Georgiev (14.79 GSAx).
Rested and at home, Anaheim will turn to John Gibson (-1.30 GSAx). Instead of yet another massive disadvantage for the home side, the goaltending is fairly equal tonight. It's largely how the Ducks compete with better teams; they usually get backup netminders.
That's the largest reason our model gives the Ducks a 60.1% chance to cover the spread, but these odds imply just a 51.2% probability it happens tonight.
Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes +1.5 (+114) - 3 Stars
The coverin' Coyotes did it again -- just not on the last day we featured them.
Arizona lost 3-1 on Friday in Colorado behind a crushing -- for bettors -- late goal from Mikko Rantanen, but they got their revenge (kind of) on Sunday. The Yotes snagged a point in a 4-3 loss that went to a shootout. All in all, that gave Arizona yet another cover, lofting them to a 45-29 record against the spread (ATS) this season.
That's the second-best ATS mark in the NHL for one of the league's most consistently undervalued clubs.
This steep price is likely an indication of a rest disadvantage for the Coyotes. After all, Arizona doesn't see a drop in goal from starter to backup. Karel Vejmelka (11.28 GSAx) will get the nod tonight versus Edmonton, and he's actually outperformed Stuart Skinner (9.59 GSAx) of the Oilers this year.
We've got the Yotes pegged as 59.3% likely to cover tonight's spread, but these odds are suggesting just a 46.7% implied chance.
