NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 4/6/23
We've got stark gaps in motivation as the NHL's race for the postseason heats up, but some spots aren't adjusting enough for the goaltending rest component in some of the games.
Which lines should we back today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders
Islanders -1.5 (+180)
The Lightning burned Andrei Vasilevskiy last night against the Rangers, and it didn't pan out. Vasy surrendered six goals in a loss, and they're still behind the 8-ball today.
Despite last night's struggle, Vasilevskiy is fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (27.51 GSAx). They'll now turn to Brian Elliott (-2.65 GSAx) as one of the biggest dropoffs amongst individual tandems in the sport.
That's bad news with the Islanders desperate for two points to stay in the East's final playoff spot, and Ilya Sorokin will be the guy for the Isles from here on in. Sorokin leads the NHL in GSAx (47.82) by over eight goals above expectation and should win this year's Vezina Trophy on his individual effort. He likely won't because hockey is archaic with analytics.
These two clubs have posted an exact expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) of 50.3% since March 1st, so with motivation and goaltending squarely in the Isles' corner, I'm expecting a comfortable win for them tonight against the Bolts' backup netminder.
Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators
Predators ML (+150)
This is another game where the urgency factor might not be appropriate.
Carolina leads the Metropolitan Division fairly comfortably with 109 points. Could they use a win to prevent any seeding disasters? Sure. However, their spot is largely secured. Nashville needs two points in all four of their remaining games to have a realistic shot of even making the playoffs.
At home, we'll back another elite netminder here. Juuse Saros (39.43 GSAx) is the closest performer to Sorokin this year, propelling his disastrous club to this point. Incredibly, the Preds have the fourth-worst xGF% (42.5%) since March 1st and are gaining ground on his back.
The Hurricanes are the opposite. They're sixth in xGF% (56.5%) in that span, but Frederik Andersen (0.99 GSAx) likely won't be resting, as he's struggled to regain his 2021-22 form the entire season.
With the goaltending edge and a canyon in motivation here, the Preds shouldn't be 40.0% implied to win here. numberFire's model agrees, giving them a 46.6% chance without even factoring in motivation.
Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks
Avalanche -1.5 (+106)
The Avalanche are in a three-way tie atop the Central Division, but they're punching below their weight class tonight to score two valuable points.
They're in San Jose to battle the Sharks, a team they beat 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday. That was probably a ceiling result for the tanking Teal Chondrichthyes. Their 43.1 xGF% since March 1st is the sixth-worst in the league, and Kaapo Kahkonen's -20.95 GSAx ranks 98th of 101 goalies to take the ice this year. He's awful.
Colorado has been one of the better teams in the league during this period, amassing a 52.4 xGF%. Plus, Alexandar Georgiev (15.42 GSAx) is a top-15 goaltender. San Jose getting a point on Tuesday took every lucky bounce.
Sharp bettors have pounded this puckline with 94% of the money on the Avalanche in this spot, and it's worth remembering public bettors likely aren't going to lay -126 behind one of the league's worst teams, so 84% of the tickets in this direction isn't overly surprising. It's more crucial that sharps aren't touching San Jose.
