NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 4/20/23

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Apr 20th, 2023

On Wednesday, teams that won the expected goal battle in Game 1 all won Game 2. Three of four won by multiple goals.

Let's keep targeting that trend today -- and a similar one.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils

Devils ML (-130)
Under 5.5 (-102)

While this game did eclipse this total in Game 1, it shouldn't have.

These teams combined for just 5.06 expected goals in that contest, which was won 2.68 to 2.38 by the New Jersey Devils. Of course, New Jersey got throttled 5-1 on the actual scoreboard.

That definitely shouldn't stay the case all series. The Devils were the better team from March 1st to the end of the regular season. New Jersey posted a league-best 59.8% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%). I expected a postseason ascension from the Rangers as the veteran club, but that doesn't mean a sweep from their 49.9 xGF% in that same period.

Plus, Vitek Vanecek should hold up better in future efforts. In terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Vanecek (13.28 GSAx) was a top-15 netminder this year despite not playing like one on Tuesday.

Even though New York has stolen home ice, expect a gritty, low-scoring Devils bounce-back effort tonight.

Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche -1.5 (+122)

A bounce-back effort should be coming from the Colorado Avalanche, too.

Colorado won their expected-goals battle 3.52 to 2.46, which was the third-most lopsided game in the set of Game 1s. However, they lost 3-1 on a revenge effort from Seattle's Philipp Grubauer, who turned aside 34 of 35 shots from his former club.

Gru doesn't figure to be an advantage all series, though. He ended the season at 4.94 GSAx, which lagged considerably behind Alexandar Georgiev (17.29 GSAx) in a comparable number of appearances.

Winning that battle within the battle is a great start for the Avs -- despite the result, obviously. From March 1st to the end of the season, Seattle (56.4 xGF%) was playing better hockey than Colorado (53.4 xGF%), so turning that trend around really puts them in the driver's seat considering Georgiev.

The Avalanche started this series as a heavy favorite because of their goaltending edge, and the opposite came true in Game 1. Expect a correction in Game 2.