NHL Betting Guide: Friday 4/21/23
As these first-round playoff series progress, every game seems to be landing on this low-scoring, pick 'em type of mold.
We'll try to make heads or tails of them to find two correct sides today.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders
Islanders ML (-115)
Islanders -1.5 (+230)
In the expected-goal battle, this series has gone opposite of how I expected. Carolina has barely edged New York in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes by a margin of 2.88 to 2.74.
Largely, this series' expectation was the Canes skating around the Isles at will with the expectation of the Islanders' Ilya Sorokin, who led all goaltenders this year in goals saved above expectation (GSAx), cleaning up the mess on the back end. Sorokin, though, has posted just 0.21 GSAx for the series and has been largely average.
That's a daunting prospect with this series shifting back to Long Island, and to make the Isles even hungrier, they didn't secure a win on Raleigh despite the quality play from the club.
New York's status as a favorite here should tell the story, but if it doesn't the betting splits can. Despite receiving just 55% of betting tickets, 73% of the handle is on the Isles to win tonight. This 1.5-goal puckline deserves a sprinkle in case of an empty-net goal, too.
Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild
Wild ML (-110)
New York and Carolina are the tightest series by expected goals through two games, but this one is the third-closest.
Minnesota earned a split in Dallas, and they came out for Game 2 knowing that to get waxed. There was some puck luck in that 7-3 defeat, though. In terms of expected goals per 60 in this series, Dallas (3.07) has just a modest edge over the Wild (2.56) -- and our sample is pretty sizable here are the two overtime periods in Game 1.
The problem the Stars will need to correct moving forward is the gap in goal. A large part of their Game 2 win was drawing Marc-Andre Fleury (0.86 GSAx this season) instead of Filip Gustavsson (24.54 GSAx). Gus was masterful in Game 1 with 2.10 GSAx to literally propel Minnesota to victory.
Through two games, Jake Oettinger has posted just 0.62 GSAx. That mirrors the end-of-season trend where Gustavsson was playing much better, and that gap is wider than the one between the skaters at the moment.
In a pick 'em affair, I'll side with the home team and its rested netminder.
