Group E: Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia

Group E Favorites | Brazil

Brazil 1, Germany 7.

It’s hard to forget a beatdown like that regardless of the context, but when it comes in the semifinals of a World Cup in your home nation, it tends to linger.

But while the sting of the Mineirazo of 2014 still remains, this current version of La Selecao has done their best to put it firmly in the background.

Since veteran manager Tite’s appointment in 2016, Brazil have looked like the Brazil of old, winning 15 of 19 games and outscoring opponents 42-5 (!!) over that stretch to firmly establish themselves as the favorites -- by both our numbers and oddsmakers everywhere.

With Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino in top form after strong years in the Premier League, the flair up top that you expect from the Samba Boys is back in full force, and that’s before factoring in Neymar’s potential return from a foot injury.

But as good an attacking team as this side is, it’s their balance that could lead them to a sixth star on their famous canary yellow shirts. With generals Casemiro and Fernandinho patrolling the middle of the park, speed merchants Marcelo, Douglas Costa and Willian on the flanks and in-demand keeper Alisson in goal, there aren’t many holes to expose in this incarnation of the five-time world champions, and it would be a huge shock if they don’t reach the business end of the tournament.

We give them a whopping 52.19% chance to make it to the final and a 38.44% chance to win it all -- by far the best odds in the field.

Team of Intrigue -- Switzerland

In recent years, the Swiss have been good at major tournaments -- but not quite good enough.

Four years ago in Brazil, they took second in an admittedly weak group behind France, only to valiantly fall 1-0 to Argentina in the Round of 16. A similar story unfolded two years later in Euro 2016, with a runner-up group finish (to France, again) leading to a penalty shootout loss to Poland in the first knockout stage.

There are signs, though, that this year might be different. Vladimir Petkovic’s side went 9-0-1 in qualifying to finish level on points with Portugal atop their group, and when goal difference sent them to the playoffs, they calmly dispatched Northern Ireland to reach their eighth consecutive major tournament.

Currently 6th in the world in FIFA's rankings -- though 22nd by our metrics -- La Nati don’t have many household names outside of captain (and new Arsenal man) Stephan Lichtsteiner and the Premier League’s Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka, but they do have a good balance of experience and youth that could see them shrug off recent history and advance beyond the opening knockout round.

Star Watch -- Keylor Navas

Neymar is the obvious choice of star man in Group E, but as the 26-year-old might not contribute until later in the tournament (depending on his fitness), let’s tout up a three-time UEFA Champions League-winning goalkeeper instead.

The Real Madrid No. 1 since 2015, Navas exploded on the world scene the year previous after helping lead underdogs Costa Rica out of a World Cup group that featured Italy, England and Uruguay and carrying them all the way to the quarterfinals. He was subsequently named a finalist for the tournament’s Golden Glove Award alongside Manuel Neuer and Sergio Romero.

The scenario is basically the same four years later, as once again, Navas’ Los Ticos are the minnows in a group of South American and European sides with higher-profile players and more resources, but perhaps that’s just how the star netminder and his compatriots like it.

It's just the Ticos’ fourth World Cup appearance since 1990, but if Navas once again deliver on the big stage -- and if the defense in front of him remains resolute -- who’s to say another shock run isn’t in the cards?

Match In Focus

Brazil vs. Serbia -- June 27, Moscow

In 2015 in New Zealand, Serbia shocked Brazil, 2-1, to win the Under-20 World Cup, the second such title in the country’s history and first since 1987.

Some members of that Serbian youth squad are now in the senior team, and along with (much) more experienced campaigners like Branislav Ivanovic and Nemanja Matic, you’d suspect they won’t have the same level of awe some sides might have when facing La Selecao on the opposite side of the pitch.

Relatively new manager Mladen Krstajic and his side haven’t been offered much hope to advance -- a 31.48% chance, according to our metrics -- but they did top a UEFA qualifying group that featured Ireland and Wales, and if Brazil have already won the group by the start of the third matchday, Serbia could find themselves facing a side with several key men rested for the knockout stages.

What Lies Ahead

Topping Group E means a winnable fixture with Sweden or Mexico in the Round of 16, while finishing in second will land you a date with the reigning world champions. No team is unbeatable, but since Germany has failed to reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup only once since 1954 (!!), history would not be on the side of the team facing die Mannschaft in an early knockout-stage match.

In other words, win the group.

numberFire Projections

Brazil -- 90.88% to top group, 98.33% to advance

Switzerland -- 5.32% to top group, 53.41% to advance

Serbia -- 2.69% to top group, 31.48% to advance

Costa Rica -- 1.11% to top group, 9.68 to advance