Group H: Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan

Group H Favorites -- Poland

Make no mistake, Group H is the most wide-open in the tournament -- and our metrics reflect that -- but the form and pedigree of Adam Nawalka’s veteran squad make them the slight favorite to finish on top.

The sleeping giants of central European have been on a great run of late, advancing to the quarterfinals of Euro 2016 before topping a UEFA qualifying group that featured Denmark and Romania to reach their first World Cup since 2006.

Ranked as high as 5th in the world last year, per FIFA's rankings, the Orly -- or “the Eagles” for non-Polish speakers -- have risen on the capable shoulders of Bayern Munich hitman Robert Lewandowski, who scored 16 times in qualifying to finish as the world’s joint top-scorer for that stage of the tournament.

This is more than a one-man team, however. This Polish side is experienced in defense, steady in midfield and boasts a world-class goalkeeper in Juventus’ new first-choice stopper Wojciech Szczesny and a rising star alongside Lewandowski in Napoli’s Arkadiusz Milik, who is fit and back in form after suffering a pair of ACL tears in each of the last two seasons.

Team of Intrigue -- Colombia

One of the big winners of Brazil 2014, Los Cafeteros took the previous edition of this tournament by storm, winning four matches in convincing fashion before falling to the hosts in a heated quarterfinal in Fortaleza.

Four years later, many of the signature members from that run remain in place, including the venerable Jose Pekerman calling the shots on the touchline and Bayern Munich’s James Rodriguez -- the Golden Boot winner in Brazil -- pulling the strings from midfield, but there is a touch of the new, as well, with 14 of the final 23-man squad set to make their World Cup debut in Russia.

But along with those personnel changes, the main difference in this edition of Colombia compared to the free-flowing outfit of 2014 is their form entering the tournament. Unlike in the build-up to the last World Cup -- when they finished second in CONMEBOL qualifying behind only Argentina -- this version just secured passage to Russia with a less-than-stellar 7-6-5 record and a +2 goal difference, and they’ve won just three times in their last 11 matches.

That recent lack of success might count for little once the tournament begins, but it does explain why the South American giants come in only 16th in our power rankings.

Star Watch -- Sadio Mane

In a group of evenly-matched sides, one outstanding individual performance could lift a team to the knockout stages, and in Group H, the 26-year old Senegalese forward is the man most likely to hit those heights.

One of the quickest attackers in the Premier League, Mane scored 20 times in all competitions last year for Liverpool -- including 10 tallies in 13 matches in the Champions League -- and while he won’t have a superb supporting cast around him at the World Cup like he does at Anfield, that didn’t prevent him from finding the back of the net four times in nine matches for the Lions of Teranga in 2017.

That’s not to say Senegal are short of talent -- Everton’s Idrissa Gueye, West Ham’s Cheikhou Kouyate and Stoke’s Mame Diouf are just three of a group of players that Premier League fans will know well -- but it feels as though this team that went unbeaten in CAF qualifying will go as far in Russia as Mane takes them.

Match In Focus

Japan vs Colombia -- June 19, Saransk

The opening match of Group H should give us a hint at what to expect in the weeks ahead, with two of the tournament’s more unpredictable teams going head-to-head.

Japan endured a modicum level of suspense in an up-and-down qualification for Russia 2018, as the Samurai Blue won their AFC qualifying group with a game to spare but finished top by only one point over Saudi Arabia and Australia. They’ll boast familiar goal-threats Keisuke Honda, Shinji Kagawa and Shinji Okazaki, but overall, this is considered to be a weaker Japanese side than the team that went to Brazil in 2014, and that edition finished bottom of their group.

If Akira Nichino’s side want to survive past the group stage for the third time in their country’s history, they’ll likely need a result on Matchday 1 against the favored Colombians.

What Lies Ahead

The winner of Group H will likely get England in the Round of 16, while the runner-up should be in for a date with Belgium on the other side of the bracket. Beyond that, Germany and Brazil could lie in wait in the quarterfinals, making either road a difficult one for the sides that escape the tournament’s most-open group.

numberFire Projections

Poland -- 53.98% to top group, 83.29% to advance

Colombia -- 31.16% to top group, 69.55% to advance

Japan -- 12.94% to top group, 38.98% to advance

Senegal -- 1.92% to top group, 8.18% to advance