SOCCER

2018 World Cup: Finding Betting Value in Group Stage Point Totals

Tom Sokol Jun 11th, 2018
Vegas has set lines for each team's group stage point totals. Going by our projections, which sides provide betting value?

With the World Cup fast approaching, the betting lines for the group stage have been set, and one of the more intriguing betting options available on Oddsshark is the over/under for total group stage points for each team.

Let's compare our models, specifically our game simulator, to the betting odds to find one team worth gambling on -- either over or under their listed point total -- in each group.

The process we'll use is this: if we gave Team X a 50% chance to win their first match and a 25% chance to draw the contest, that would mean that their projected points for that game would be 1.75 (3*0.5 + 1*0.25). We did that for each group stage match to compile a projected point total for every team in the field, and then we can compare them to oddsmakers' lines.

Let's do it.

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