Champions League Betting: Why Juventus and Liverpool Are the Best Bets to Win It All

The Favorites

Manchester City +220
Juventus +270
Barcelona +380
Liverpool +390

Juventus

Manchester City and Juventus are both heavy favorites in their quarterfinal matchups, and if they meet each other in the semis -- which would be a proper matchup -- it would be close to a coin-flip, with City likely being slight favorites. So why not go ahead and take the +270 odds with Juve instead of the +220 number with City?

City -- who play a Tottenham side without a home stadium (as of now) and one they have won three straight against in EPL play over the past two years by a combined score of 8-2 -- look like the best team in Europe right now. They've got an eye-popping +58 goal differential in Europe's top domestic league, one that accounts for half of the eight remaining sides. But Juve are pretty darn good themselves, 18 points clear in Serie A. In fact, per WhoScored.com's team ratings, Juve (7.05) are right on the heels of City (7.08), and they are the two best teams left in the field (PSG are actually WhoScored's highest-rated side).

Picking between City and Juve is splitting hairs, but the Italian giants have two things working in their favor.

One, Juve have Cristiano Ronaldo, who flexed his muscles with a historic hat trick in the Old Lady's comeback win over Atleti in the Round of 16. He's one of two players in the world -- Lionel Messi being the other -- capable of ripping apart any opposition on his day. One peak Ronaldo display could undo City just like it did Atleti.

Two, thanks to their commanding lead in Serie A, Juventus have the advantage of being able to rest players during domestic-league action, something City can't do while engaged in a tight EPL title chase with Liverpool. Six days before the scheduled date for the first leg of the semis, City have a massive derby clash with rivals Manchester United. Juve, meanwhile, may have the Scudetto clinched by the time the semis roll around, allowing them to get their players to peak fitness ahead of the two potential matches with City.

We can't completely dismiss Ajax, a young, talented and fearless side. After all, they did knock out Real Madrid on the strength of a 4-1 road win at the Bernabéu. If you win 4-1 in Madrid, you can beat anyone, anywhere.

With that said, this year's edition of Real aren't that great, sitting third in La Liga with a mere +15 goal differential and ranking outside the top five in WhoScored's team ratings. Real were having issues last year, as well, but another run in the UCL papered over the cracks. There was no masking Real's issues this time around, and Ajax likely put the final nail in the coffin for this Real Madrid core. So while Ajax are capable of going through versus Juve, they are the clear underdog.

All in all, we should get a Juve-City semifinal. Juve would likely be a slight underdog in that matchup, but the current discrepancy in title odds doesn't accurately show how evenly-matched the two sides are. And in the final, Juve would get a top-notch side -- likely Liverpool or Barcelona -- but anything can happen in a one-off final, and the current odds show that Juve would likely be a slight favorite in the final.

Liverpool

Everyone left wanted to draw Porto, who oddsmakers have as the clear black sheep in the quarters. Liverpool were the lucky side.

The Reds should make quick work of the Portuguese powers, which is exactly what they did last season in the Round of 16, rolling to a 5-0 win at Porto in the first leg before seeing out a 0-0 draw at Anfield in the second leg.

Liverpool losing to Porto would be a bigger upset than anything we've seen this year in the UCL, and we've seen some pretty big upsets. So we can feel good about pushing the Reds through to the semis, and there, they'll likely see Barcelona, who are favorites over Manchester United in the quarterfinals.

A Liverpool-Barca matchup would be must-watch TV. In terms of entertainment, these two may be the most fun teams to watch in Europe, though Manchester City are right up there, too. Barca and Liverpool are also the two teams with the biggest home-field advantage in the UCL in recent years.

In last season's UCL quarterfinals and semifinals, Liverpool dominated at Anfield by a combined score of 8-2 against City and Roma on their way to the final. Barca won by a combined score of 7-1 in their two home knockout round matchups last season (Chelsea and Roma), and they just throttled Lyon, 5-1, at the Camp Nou to advance to this year's quarters.

On the flip side, both Barca and Liverpool have been vulnerable away from home in Europe. After winning 4-1 over Roma in last year's first leg in the quarters, Barca dropped a 3-0 result in Rome to go out. Liverpool just picked up a massive 3-1 win in Munich to advance to this point, but prior to that, they'd lost all three of their road matches in this season's group stage by a combined score of 5-1, including a stunning 2-0 loss at Red Star Belgrade.

It's hard to rule out anything happening if Liverpool play Barca. Each team could win by a (very) lopsided score on their home pitch, leading to something like a 6-5 aggregate score. The road team could win each matchup. It could be 1-0 over the two legs (hopefully not!). Pretty much anything is on the table.

But I'd lean slightly toward Liverpool in this clash.

The Reds have improved massively in defense this season. Led by the world-class play of Virgil van Dijk, they have morphed from a team that relies heavily on its potent front three to win matches to a team that can win any number of ways. While Liverpool are still capable of lighting it up going forward, it was their defense that got them past Bayern Munich, limiting the Germans to a measly two shots on goal over the two legs in the Round of 16, and the Reds have conceded just 17 goals in 30 EPL matches.

Also, Barca's possession-based style plays right into Liverpool's hands, especially at Anfield. The closest comparison to Barcelona are Manchester City under Pep Guardiola, and over the past year-plus, the one Premier League team to give City fits are Liverpool. The Reds beat City three times last year, including both legs of their UCL matchup, as City's possession-heavy ways didn't mesh well -- from a City perspective -- with Liverpool's high-octane press, allowing the Reds to win back the ball high up the pitch and strike quickly.

City turned the tide in their two EPL matches this year, forcing a 0-0 draw at Anfield and winning a tight 2-1 result in Manchester. But in both matches, City did something Barcelona are unlikely to do (even if they should) -- they changed their style a bit.

In the match at Anfield, City ceded 49% of the possession to the Reds, and Liverpool saw 51% of the possession in their loss at the Etihad. In short, City played a little more defensively than usual in their two matches versus Liverpool, learning from 2017-18 that their usual style spelled disaster against the Reds. Maybe Barca will do the same, but given that their club has been fiercely committed to one "sacred," in their manager's words, way of playing for such a long time, I wouldn't count on it, which could be what does them in against Jürgen Klopp's side.

For those reasons, I'd give Liverpool an ever-so-slight edge over Barcelona in a two-leg bout, although it would likely be a very tight -- and fun -- affair.

And as we said with Juve, once you get to the final, anything can happen in one match. Liverpool would likely come up against City or Juventus, and the Reds would be the underdog in both. But that's baked into the odds -- maybe too much so. We know Liverpool are capable of beating any team in Europe, something they've shown the past two years via UCL wins over City, Bayern Munich and PSG. They've been the most dangerous knockout team in this competition, and they're more than capable of lifting the trophy this time around after coming up one match short a season ago.