Betting Guide for UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
We've got a strong card on tap for UFC 262.
It all culminates in a title fight for the vacant lightweight belt at the top, but there are plenty of fights that look competitive.
In fact, there are only two fighters -- across the 12 fights -- with better odds than -180 to win their fight, via UFC odds.
Which spots look like the most valuable to bet on the card?
Charles Oliveira (-142) vs. Michael Chandler (+116)
I want to touch on the main event here at least, even if the overall takeaway is a tepid one. At -142 odds, Charles Oliveira (30-8-0) is 58.9% likely to win this bout and claim the vacant belt at 155 pounds.
Michael Chandler (22-5-0) is the underdog but not a substantial one.
My model gives Oliveira the edge -- but only slightly: 51.3%, and you'll see some coin-flip results in other models, too. The public picks at Tapology are rating Oliveira as 51% likely to get the win.
Chandler is the more active striker in the UFC (4.29 significant strikes landed per minute across his three UFC bouts), compared to 3.22 for Oliveira over a longer track record. In general, the data is fairly equal between the two fighters.
With the odds and probabilities being what they are, I'm more inclined to bet Chandler at +116 than the favorite but wouldn't actively be starting here unless I just wanted some main-event action.
Of note, 49% of the public predictions from Tapology anticipate a KO/TKO finish, in line with the +100 odds for the fight to end as such on UFC odds.
Beneil Dariush (-184) vs. Tony Ferguson (+148)
The co-main event, also a lightweight bout, should have big implications in the division.
Beneil Dariush (20-4-1) is getting the love from the bookmakers, as he is on a six-fight win streak in the UFC.
That includes four stoppages but most recently a split decision win over Carlos Diego Ferreira in February. Interestingly, 16 of 20 media sources scored the bout 30-27 for Dariush. The other four scored it 29-28 for Dariush, but the actual judges went 29-28, 29-28, 28-29 for the split decision.
Tony Ferguson (25-5-0), meanwhile, has dropped 2 straight after a 12-fight win streak. His losses were to Justin Gaethje (by fifth-round knockout) last May in a fight for the interim lightweight championship and to Oliveira (to unanimous decision) in December.
Though the striking advantage should favor Ferguson (5.46 significant strikes per minute landed to 4.00), Dariush averages 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes to Ferguson's 0.45. Each fighter has eight submission victories in his career, though.
Similar to the main event, my model sees it close: 54.5% for Dariush. But that's not enough at his -184 odds and actually makes Ferguson at +148 a value. The odds imply a 40.3% win chance, but he's at 45.5% in my model.
Of note, 62% of public picks at Tapology are anticipating this fight to go the distance, which we can bet at -150 odds. Given that Dariush is my model's preference, we could take some risk and go with him by points at +150. Ferguson is +380 to win by points.
So: Ferguson outright (+148) or the fight to end by points (-150) are the primary recommendations based on value, but we can stretch our ROI further if we back a particular fighter to win by points.
Katlyn Chookagian (-144) vs. Viviane Araújo (+118)
This flyweight bout features the number-two contender in the division (Katlyn Chookagian [15-4-0]) and the number-seven contender (Viviane Araújo [10-2-0]). Despite the ranking gap, the odds are fairly close here.
Chookagian is rating out as 59.6% likely to get the win here, according to my model, making her a positive value at -144. She sports a 2-2-0 record over her past four fights, including a unanimous decision win over fifth-ranked contender Cynthia Calvillo most recently.
Her losses were by body-punch TKOs to Valentina Shevchenko and Jéssica Andrade in 2020, the flyweight champion and top-ranked contender, respectively. Understandable losses.
Araújo, meanwhile, most recently beat Montana De La Rosa (currently unranked) and Roxanne Modafferi (currently the ninth-ranked contender in the division). Before that, she lost to Jessica Eye, ranked eighth in the division. So, the results look better for Araújo without context, but with it, it makes sense to back Chookagian.
That's what my model is doing -- and the public, too. Tapology picks see Chookagian winning 71% of the time (91% by decision), a much stronger take than what my model is displaying.
Chookagian's moneyline of -144 give us slight outright value. And 89% of the public picks are on this fight to end by decision, which can be bet at -340. Chookagian by decision herself is +100 if we want to get even odds rather than the -144 line.
UFC 262 Preliminary Card Betting Picks
Mike Grundy (-128) over Lando Vannata
Jordan Wright (-112) over Jamie Pickett
Tucker Lutz (-128) over Kevin Aguilar
Christos Giagos (-220) over Sean Soriano
