Fantasy Baseball: 10 Starting Pitchers Expected to See an Increase in Production
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
2016 nF Score: -0.38
2017 Projected nF Score: 2.69
Projected Boost: 3.07
| Year | IP | W | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 168 | 9 | 144 | 48 | 4.55 | 1.29 |
| 2017 (Projected) | 204 | 13 | 179 | 59 | 3.58 | 1.27 |
The second Astros pitcher on the list, seeing a boost in production and a return to form would be huge for Dallas Keuchel, who has an AL Cy Young award sitting on his mantle at home.
Keuchel did deal with shoulder problems last year, which could be cause for a red flag, but he's at least throwing without pain again.
After watching hitters induce hard contact around 20% of the time between 2014 and 2015, that number jumped to a career-high 28.9% in 2016. There could be many reasons for that, but the last time his hard-hit rate was above 28% took place in 2013, when he threw his fastball just 52.8% of the time. After two consecutive seasons of approaching nearly 60%, his usage of the pitch dropped to a career-low 50.4%
Conversely, the usage of his cutter increased to a career-high 13.9%, and hitters produced an Isolated Power (ISO) of .315 against that pitch last season.
Current Fantasy Draft Information:
Keuchel isn't finding a home on fantasy squads much sooner than McCullers, as his ADP is just inside the top 150 as the 35th starting pitcher. Similar to his fellow rotation-mate, health will be key here. We've seen the type of production he can provide, and that would crush value in this particular slot.
The support of a solid lineup behind him is an added bonus for the wins category.
