3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/11/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+370)
The San Diego Padres have a solid 4.94 implied run total tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks and we should see plenty of scoring.
Arizona will have Ryne Nelson on the mound tonight, a pitcher with some significant struggles this season when it comes to home runs. Nelson has allowed at least one home run in each of his last seven outings.
On the year, Nelson comes in allowing a .511 SLG, .357 wOBA, 5.67 xFIP, 1.07 HR/9, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. There's not much to say about that stat line other than the fact it puts opposing hitters in a great spot.
We'll turn to Juan Soto, who is rocking a 167 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .283 ISO, 33.5% fly-ball rate, 41.8% hard-contact rate, and 26.8% HR/FB rate versus righties. It's an overall great matchup for Soto and the Padres, so I'll add Soto To Record an RBI (+115), too.
Bobby Witt Jr. To Record an RBI (+100)
Bobby Witt Jr. has taken a big step forward in his career this season and has a great matchup to continue that success tonight.
There are always going to be some growing pains for a young player, and Witt has seemingly pushed through that and becoming a consistent force. That should be on display tonight since the Kansas City Royals have a sizable 5.37 implied run total against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cards will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is having one of the worst years of his career. Wainwright allows a .371 wOBA, .491 SLG, 5.10 xFIP, .355 BABIP, 1.14 HR/9, and 36.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.
Witt comes in with a 104 wRC+, .325 wOBA, .202 ISO, .297 BABIP, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
This is an elite matchup for Witt, and we want to trust him in this spot.
Reid Detmers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Finally, turn to under 5.5 strikeouts for Reid Detmers tonight.
Detmers is a solid pitcher with a 28.8% strikeout rate this season, but things haven't been that strong in recent outings. Over his last five starts, Detmers has posted a strikeout rate below 24.0% three times.
He certainly has the skill set to reach for that higher strikeout rate, but it's not as consistent as we saw in the beginning portion of the season.
Detmers is up against the Houston Astros, who come in with an 18.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the second-lowest in the league. With the Astros being super disciplined at the plate, and Detmers strikeout rate fluctuating, this doesn't set up to be a high strikeout performance.
